Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 15/08, 02:00
Prediction: Atletico Mineiro (W) vs Gremio (W)
Team pages: Atletico Mineiro (W) · Gremio (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.54Total
Atletico Mineiro (W)1.05
Gremio (W)1.49
1X2
Atletico Mineiro (W)
Draw
Gremio (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Mineiro (W)
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Gremio (W)
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Mineiro (W)
0–1–3
Gremio (W)
(4 last)
- Atletico Mineiro (W)1-2Gremio (W)
- Gremio (W)2-1Atletico Mineiro (W)
- Gremio (W)1-1Atletico Mineiro (W)
- Atletico Mineiro (W)0-2Gremio (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico Mineiro (W) 1491 · Gremio (W) 1545
| Atletico Mineiro (W) | Draw | Gremio (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 28% | 46% |
| Market | 26% | 28% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gremio (W) (rating 1491 vs 1545).
- H2H favours Gremio (W): 3-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Mineiro (W) | Gremio (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.5 | 1.5 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.9 | 1.9 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.1 | 4.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Mineiro (W) 0–1–3 Gremio (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Atletico Mineiro (W) | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Gremio (W) |
| 07/03/23 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Gremio (W) | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Atletico Mineiro (W) |
| 19/03/22 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Gremio (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Atletico Mineiro (W) |
| 25/04/19 Brazil Campeonato Brasileiro A2 Women | Atletico Mineiro (W) | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Gremio (W) |
Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corinthians (W) | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 14 | 37 |
| 2 | Sao Paulo (W) | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 10 | 35 |
| 3 | Palmeiras (W) | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 29 | 11 | 32 |
| 4 | Bahia (W) | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 18 | 27 |
| 5 | Ferroviaria (W) | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 27 |
| 6 | Gremio (W) | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 24 |
| 7 | Internacional (W) | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 14 | 24 |
| 8 | Cruzeiro (W) | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 28 | 18 | 24 |
| 9 | Flamengo (W) | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 17 | 24 |
| 10 | Fluminense RJ (W) | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 22 |
| 11 | Bragantino (W) | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 23 | 20 |
| 12 | Santos (W) | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 13 | Atletico Mineiro (W) | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 13 |
| 14 | Mixto EC (W) | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 12 |
| 15 | EC Juventude (W) | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 10 |
| 16 | America MG (W) | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 28 | 7 |
| 17 | EC Vitoria (W) | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 37 | 7 |
| 18 | Botafogo (W) | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 32 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Mineiro (W) | Gremio (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Bahia (W) | 0-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Mixto EC (W) | 0-0 D | 3-0 W |
| Bragantino (W) | 0-2 L | 3-0 W |
| America MG (W) | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Gremio (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Mineiro (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-3 | 0-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 25/07 | Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 23/07 | Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 28/05 | EC Vitoria (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 24/05 | Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 12/05 | Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 01/05 | Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 28/04 | Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
Gremio (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 10 | W |
| 01/08 | America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 27/05 | Internacional (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 24/05 | EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 01/05 | Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 28/04 | Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/04 | Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Mineiro (W) vs Gremio (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Gremio (W) win (46%). Probabilities: Atletico Mineiro (W) 26%, draw 28%, Gremio (W) 46%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Mineiro (W) vs Gremio (W)?
The model expects 2.54 goals (Atletico Mineiro (W) 1.05 · Gremio (W) 1.49), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Mineiro (W) vs Gremio (W)?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.