Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 16/08, 16:00

Prediction: Botafogo (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)

Team pages: Botafogo (W) · Sao Paulo (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Botafogo (W)0.55

Sao Paulo (W)2.23

1X2

7% 17% 76%

Botafogo (W) Draw Sao Paulo (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

Botafogo (W) 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLLLL

Sao Paulo (W) 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWWWWW

Head-to-head

Botafogo (W) 0–2 Sao Paulo (W) (2 last)

Sao Paulo (W)3-0Botafogo (W)
Sao Paulo (W)1-0Botafogo (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Botafogo (W) 1393 · Sao Paulo (W) 1601

	Botafogo (W)	Draw	Sao Paulo (W)
Our model	7%	18%	75%
Market	8%	17%	76%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sao Paulo (W) (rating 1393 vs 1601).
H2H favours Sao Paulo (W): 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Botafogo (W)	Sao Paulo (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 2.2	1.7 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.4	3.2 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	2.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

112.00

X5.50

21.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)2.02

2 (-1.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	12.00 → 13.00▲	Bet365 13.00
X	5.50 → 5.75▲	Bet365 5.75
2	1.20 → 1.18▼	Pinn 1.22 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.8% Pinnacle margin 10.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:53 +6’	12.00	5.50	1.20
10:21 +10’	13.00▲	5.75▲	1.18▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:30 +1’	11.11	5.13	1.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo (W) 0–0–2 Sao Paulo (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
14/04/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Sao Paulo (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Botafogo (W)
13/05/21 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Sao Paulo (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Botafogo (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Corinthians (W)	15	12	1	2	40	14	37
2	Sao Paulo (W)	15	11	2	2	25	10	35
3	Palmeiras (W)	15	9	5	1	29	11	32
4	Bahia (W)	15	8	3	4	27	18	27
5	Ferroviaria (W)	15	7	6	2	20	12	27
6	Gremio (W)	15	7	3	5	22	14	24
7	Internacional (W)	15	7	3	5	17	14	24
8	Cruzeiro (W)	15	6	6	3	28	18	24
9	Flamengo (W)	15	6	6	3	22	17	24
10	Fluminense RJ (W)	15	6	4	5	18	17	22
11	Bragantino (W)	15	6	2	7	22	23	20
12	Santos (W)	15	5	5	5	18	19	20
13	Atletico Mineiro (W)	15	3	4	8	14	21	13
14	Mixto EC (W)	15	2	6	7	9	24	12
15	EC Juventude (W)	15	2	4	9	7	17	10
16	America MG (W)	15	1	4	10	7	28	7
17	EC Vitoria (W)	15	1	4	10	12	37	7
18	Botafogo (W)	15	1	2	12	9	32	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Botafogo (W)	Sao Paulo (W)
Cruzeiro (W)	0-4 L	2-1 W
Bragantino (W)	0-2 L	1-0 W
EC Vitoria (W)	0-2 L	3-1 W
Palmeiras (W)	0-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sao Paulo (W) (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Botafogo (W)

LLLLWLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
01/08	Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-2	0-4	3	1	L
28/07	Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-2	1	9	L
23/07	Bragantino (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
17/07	EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
27/05	EC Juventude (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	3-0	1	5	W
24/05	America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-3	12	5	L
19/05	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-3	2	6	L
11/05	Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
03/05	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-3	0	5	L

Sao Paulo (W)

LWWWLWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
02/08	EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	3-0	3-1	5	8	W
28/07	Mirassol (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
25/07	Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
22/07	Vasco da Gama (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
18/07	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
12/07	Taubate (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-1	2-1	9	2	W
06/07	Mauaense (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	3-0	15	2	W
25/05	Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
22/05	Bragantino (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	0-1	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Botafogo (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sao Paulo (W) win (76%). Probabilities: Botafogo (W) 7%, draw 17%, Sao Paulo (W) 76%.

How many goals are expected in Botafogo (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Botafogo (W) 0.55 · Sao Paulo (W) 2.23), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Botafogo (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.