Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 16/08, 16:00

Prediction: Santos (W) vs Flamengo (W)

Team pages: Santos (W) · Flamengo (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

Santos (W)1.23

Flamengo (W)1.2

1X2

36% 29% 35%

Santos (W) Draw Flamengo (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Santos (W) 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLDWWDWL

Flamengo (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWWLWDLD

Head-to-head

Santos (W) 3–2–1 Flamengo (W) (6 last)

Flamengo (W)7-0Santos (W)
Flamengo (W)1-1Santos (W)
Santos (W)4-1Flamengo (W)
Flamengo (W)1-3Santos (W)
Santos (W)3-0Flamengo (W)
Santos (W)1-1Flamengo (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santos (W) 1506 · Flamengo (W) 1527

	Santos (W)	Draw	Flamengo (W)
Our model	36%	30%	34%
Market	36%	29%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Santos (W): 3-2-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santos (W)	Flamengo (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.2	2.6 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.10

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.49
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.75 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:03 +23’	2.45	3.10	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:30 +1’	2.49	3.07	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santos (W) 3–2–1 Flamengo (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Flamengo (W)	7-0 HT 3-0	Santos (W)
06/12/23 Brazil Matches Women	Flamengo (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	Santos (W)
25/06/23 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Santos (W)	4-1 HT 1-1	Flamengo (W)
18/06/23 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Flamengo (W)	1-3 HT 1-1	Santos (W)
25/02/23 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Santos (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Flamengo (W)
07/08/22 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Santos (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	Flamengo (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Corinthians (W)	15	12	1	2	40	14	37
2	Sao Paulo (W)	15	11	2	2	25	10	35
3	Palmeiras (W)	15	9	5	1	29	11	32
4	Bahia (W)	15	8	3	4	27	18	27
5	Ferroviaria (W)	15	7	6	2	20	12	27
6	Gremio (W)	15	7	3	5	22	14	24
7	Internacional (W)	15	7	3	5	17	14	24
8	Cruzeiro (W)	15	6	6	3	28	18	24
9	Flamengo (W)	15	6	6	3	22	17	24
10	Fluminense RJ (W)	15	6	4	5	18	17	22
11	Bragantino (W)	15	6	2	7	22	23	20
12	Santos (W)	15	5	5	5	18	19	20
13	Atletico Mineiro (W)	15	3	4	8	14	21	13
14	Mixto EC (W)	15	2	6	7	9	24	12
15	EC Juventude (W)	15	2	4	9	7	17	10
16	America MG (W)	15	1	4	10	7	28	7
17	EC Vitoria (W)	15	1	4	10	12	37	7
18	Botafogo (W)	15	1	2	12	9	32	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santos (W)	Flamengo (W)
Corinthians (W)	1-4 L	0-1 L
America MG (W)	1-0 W	1-1 D
Palmeiras (W)	0-0 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Santos (W) (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Santos (W)

DLDLDWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-2	1-4	0	2	L
02/08	EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
29/07	Bragantino (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
25/07	America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
18/07	Taubate (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
28/05	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
25/05	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-2	0-3	0	2	L
22/05	Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-1	2-2	4	1	D
17/05	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-1	8	7	L
15/05	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	0-0	2	6	D

Flamengo (W)

DWWWWLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
03/08	Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-1	9	7	L
25/07	Gremio (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-2	6	5	D
21/07	3B Sport AM (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	1-0	5	0	W
13/07	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Ladies Cup	0-3	1-3	4	3	L
09/07	Club Atletico Penarol (W) Brazil Ladies Cup	4-0	4-1	4	1	W
28/05	Sao Joao PI (W) Copa do Brazil Women	–	2-0	–	–	W
23/05	Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
16/05	Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	1-0	13	6	W
12/05	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-1	4	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santos (W) vs Flamengo (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santos (W) win (36%). Probabilities: Santos (W) 36%, draw 29%, Flamengo (W) 35%.

How many goals are expected in Santos (W) vs Flamengo (W)?

The model expects 2.42 goals (Santos (W) 1.23 · Flamengo (W) 1.2), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Santos (W) vs Flamengo (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.