Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 09/08, 16:00
Prediction: Gremio (W) vs Cruzeiro (W)
Team pages: Gremio (W) · Cruzeiro (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.85Total
Gremio (W)1.29
Cruzeiro (W)1.56
1X2
Gremio (W)
Draw
Cruzeiro (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Gremio (W)
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Cruzeiro (W)
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gremio (W)
3–2–1
Cruzeiro (W)
(6 last)
- Cruzeiro (W)4-3Gremio (W)
- Gremio (W)1-0Cruzeiro (W)
- Cruzeiro (W)1-1Gremio (W)
- Cruzeiro (W)0-0Gremio (W)
- Gremio (W)2-0Cruzeiro (W)
- Gremio (W)2-1Cruzeiro (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gremio (W) 1544 · Cruzeiro (W) 1515
| Gremio (W) | Draw | Cruzeiro (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| Market | 30% | 28% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Gremio (W): 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gremio (W) | Cruzeiro (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.8 | 2.3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 1.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.3 | 3.2 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gremio (W) 3–2–1 Cruzeiro (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Cruzeiro (W) | 4-3 HT 0-2 | Gremio (W) |
| 16/06/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Gremio (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cruzeiro (W) |
| 25/02/23 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Cruzeiro (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Gremio (W) |
| 06/03/22 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Cruzeiro (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Gremio (W) |
| 05/02/22 Brazil Matches | Gremio (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Cruzeiro (W) |
| 22/04/21 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Gremio (W) | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Cruzeiro (W) |
Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corinthians (W) | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 13 | 34 |
| 2 | Sao Paulo (W) | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | Palmeiras (W) | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 11 | 31 |
| 4 | Ferroviaria (W) | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 26 |
| 5 | Bahia (W) | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 18 | 24 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro (W) | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 28 | 16 | 24 |
| 7 | Internacional (W) | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 12 | 23 |
| 8 | Flamengo (W) | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 16 | 23 |
| 9 | Gremio (W) | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 14 | 21 |
| 10 | Bragantino (W) | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 22 | 20 |
| 11 | Santos (W) | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 20 |
| 12 | Fluminense RJ (W) | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 19 |
| 13 | Atletico Mineiro (W) | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 18 | 13 |
| 14 | EC Juventude (W) | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 10 |
| 15 | Mixto EC (W) | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 9 |
| 16 | America MG (W) | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 27 | 6 |
| 17 | EC Vitoria (W) | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 35 | 6 |
| 18 | Botafogo (W) | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 30 | 5 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gremio (W) | Cruzeiro (W) |
|---|---|---|
| America MG (W) | 1-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Internacional (W) | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| EC Juventude (W) | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Bragantino (W) | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Corinthians (W) | 0-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Sao Paulo (W) | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| EC Vitoria (W) | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 3 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gremio (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 27/05 | Internacional (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 24/05 | EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 01/05 | Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 28/04 | Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/04 | Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 04/04 | EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 14 | 3 | W |
Cruzeiro (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 25/07 | Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 21/07 | Fluminense RJ (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 28/05 | Doce Mel EC (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
1-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 19/05 | Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 01/05 | EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 22/04 | Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gremio (W) vs Cruzeiro (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Cruzeiro (W) win (42%). Probabilities: Gremio (W) 30%, draw 28%, Cruzeiro (W) 42%.
How many goals are expected in Gremio (W) vs Cruzeiro (W)?
The model expects 2.85 goals (Gremio (W) 1.29 · Cruzeiro (W) 1.56), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Gremio (W) vs Cruzeiro (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.