Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 09/08, 21:00

Prediction: Corinthians (W) vs Santos (W)

Team pages: Corinthians (W) · Santos (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Corinthians (W)1.9

Santos (W)0.72

1X2

66% 21% 14%

Corinthians (W) Draw Santos (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Corinthians (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWWWLWLW

Santos (W) 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDLDLDWWDW

Head-to-head

Corinthians (W) 4–2–0 Santos (W) (6 last)

Corinthians (W)2-2Santos (W)
Corinthians (W)1-0Santos (W)
Santos (W)0-3Corinthians (W)
Corinthians (W)1-1Santos (W)
Santos (W)1-3Corinthians (W)
Corinthians (W)2-0Santos (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Corinthians (W) 1585 · Santos (W) 1512

	Corinthians (W)	Draw	Santos (W)
Our model	64%	23%	12%
Market	66%	19%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Corinthians (W) (rating 1585 vs 1512).
H2H favours Corinthians (W): 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Corinthians (W)	Santos (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.5	1.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.75

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.80

2 (+1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 22:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.50 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75
2	6.25 → 6.25	Pinn 7.82 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.4% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:52 +9’	1.36	4.50	6.25
15:47 +2’	1.33▼	4.50	7.00▲
22:48 +2’	1.36▲	4.75▲	6.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:45	1.32	4.78	8.19
15:48	1.32▲	4.76▼	8.17▼
07:12 +1’	1.34▲	4.63▼	7.82▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Corinthians (W) 4–2–0 Santos (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Brazil Paulista Women	Corinthians (W)	2-2 HT 1-1	Santos (W)
20/09/25 Brazil Paulista Women	Corinthians (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Santos (W)
15/05/25 Brazil Paulista Women	Santos (W)	0-3 HT 0-1	Corinthians (W)
06/06/24 Brazil Paulista Women	Corinthians (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Santos (W)
13/04/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Santos (W)	1-3 HT 1-1	Corinthians (W)
02/09/23 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Corinthians (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Santos (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Corinthians (W)	14	11	1	2	36	13	34
2	Sao Paulo (W)	14	10	2	2	24	10	32
3	Palmeiras (W)	14	9	4	1	29	11	31
4	Bahia (W)	15	8	3	4	27	18	27
5	Ferroviaria (W)	14	7	5	2	20	12	26
6	Cruzeiro (W)	14	6	6	2	28	16	24
7	Internacional (W)	14	7	2	5	15	12	23
8	Flamengo (W)	14	6	5	3	21	16	23
9	Gremio (W)	14	6	3	5	20	14	21
10	Bragantino (W)	14	6	2	6	22	22	20
11	Santos (W)	14	5	5	4	17	15	20
12	Fluminense RJ (W)	14	5	4	5	16	16	19
13	Atletico Mineiro (W)	15	3	4	8	14	21	13
14	EC Juventude (W)	14	2	4	8	7	16	10
15	Mixto EC (W)	14	1	6	7	8	24	9
16	America MG (W)	14	1	3	10	6	27	6
17	EC Vitoria (W)	14	1	3	10	10	35	6
18	Botafogo (W)	14	1	2	11	8	30	5

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Corinthians (W)	Santos (W)
Palmeiras (W)	0-1 L	0-0 D
Bragantino (W)	6-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Corinthians (W)

WLDWWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
30/07	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-1	0-1	2	2	L
26/07	EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-0	4-0	6	3	W
21/07	Ferroviaria (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
18/07	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-0	1-0	2	1	W
30/05	Palmeiras (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
26/05	Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	3-0	4-1	8	7	W
22/05	Santos (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-1	2-2	7	1	D
19/05	Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-2	2-3	4	3	L
14/05	Bragantino (W) Brazil Paulista Women	3-0	6-0	5	1	W

Santos (W)

WDLDLDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
29/07	Bragantino (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
25/07	America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
18/07	Taubate (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
28/05	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
25/05	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-2	0-3	0	2	L
22/05	Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-1	2-2	4	1	D
17/05	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-1	8	7	L
15/05	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
09/05	Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	2-0	0	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Corinthians (W) vs Santos (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Corinthians (W) win (66%). Probabilities: Corinthians (W) 66%, draw 21%, Santos (W) 14%.

How many goals are expected in Corinthians (W) vs Santos (W)?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Corinthians (W) 1.9 · Santos (W) 0.72), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Corinthians (W) vs Santos (W)?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.