Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 08/08, 21:00

Prediction: Ferroviaria (W) vs Palmeiras (W)

Team pages: Ferroviaria (W) · Palmeiras (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Ferroviaria (W)1.1

Palmeiras (W)1.52

1X2

26% 28% 46%

Ferroviaria (W) Draw Palmeiras (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ferroviaria (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWDWW

Palmeiras (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWWDWW

Head-to-head

Ferroviaria (W) 1–1–4 Palmeiras (W) (6 last)

Ferroviaria (W)2-1Palmeiras (W)
Palmeiras (W)1-1Ferroviaria (W)
Ferroviaria (W)0-2Palmeiras (W)
Ferroviaria (W)2-4Palmeiras (W)
Ferroviaria (W)1-3Palmeiras (W)
Palmeiras (W)1-0Ferroviaria (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ferroviaria (W) 1581 · Palmeiras (W) 1616

	Ferroviaria (W)	Draw	Palmeiras (W)
Our model	26%	28%	46%
Market	26%	28%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Palmeiras (W): 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ferroviaria (W)	Palmeiras (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 0.6	1.6 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6.2	4 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.25

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.77

2 (-0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.68 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.28
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.4%

Time*	1	X	2
02:29 +8’	3.40	3.25	1.95
02:53 +1’	3.20▼	3.25	2.05▲
15:15 +2’	3.40▲	3.25	1.95▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:28	3.11	2.95	2.32
12:43 +2’	3.12▲	2.96▲	2.31▼
17:59 +3’	3.14▲	2.90▼	2.33▲
05:52	3.25▲	2.94▲	2.25▼
15:16 +1’	3.83▲	3.34▲	1.88▼
17:27 +4’	3.67▼	3.29▼	1.94▲
22:02 +3’	3.68▲	3.28▼	1.93▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferroviaria (W) 1–1–4 Palmeiras (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/05/26 Brazil Paulista Women	Ferroviaria (W)	2-1 HT 0-1	Palmeiras (W)
04/12/25 Brazil Paulista Women	Palmeiras (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Ferroviaria (W)
23/11/25 Brazil Paulista Women	Ferroviaria (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	Palmeiras (W)
20/11/25 Copa do Brazil Women	Ferroviaria (W)	2-4 HT 1-2	Palmeiras (W)
23/09/25 Brazil Paulista Women	Ferroviaria (W)	1-3 HT 0-2	Palmeiras (W)
14/05/25 Brazil Paulista Women	Palmeiras (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Ferroviaria (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Corinthians (W)	14	11	1	2	36	13	34
2	Sao Paulo (W)	14	10	2	2	24	10	32
3	Palmeiras (W)	14	9	4	1	29	11	31
4	Ferroviaria (W)	14	7	5	2	20	12	26
5	Bahia (W)	14	7	3	4	24	18	24
6	Cruzeiro (W)	14	6	6	2	28	16	24
7	Internacional (W)	14	7	2	5	15	12	23
8	Flamengo (W)	14	6	5	3	21	16	23
9	Gremio (W)	14	6	3	5	20	14	21
10	Bragantino (W)	14	6	2	6	22	22	20
11	Santos (W)	14	5	5	4	17	15	20
12	Fluminense RJ (W)	14	5	4	5	16	16	19
13	Atletico Mineiro (W)	14	3	4	7	14	18	13
14	EC Juventude (W)	14	2	4	8	7	16	10
15	Mixto EC (W)	14	1	6	7	8	24	9
16	America MG (W)	14	1	3	10	6	27	6
17	EC Vitoria (W)	14	1	3	10	10	35	6
18	Botafogo (W)	14	1	2	11	8	30	5

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Ferroviaria (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
30/07	Taubate (W) Brazil Paulista Women	2-2	4-2	13	1	W
26/07	EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
21/07	Corinthians (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	1-0	1	8	W
18/07	Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
28/05	UD Alagoana (W) Copa do Brazil Women	5-0	8-0	15	3	W
24/05	Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	3-2	6	6	W
21/05	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-1	2-1	2	4	W
19/05	EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
14/05	Mirassol (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-0	4-0	4	3	W

Palmeiras (W)

WLWLWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	2-1	9	1	W
30/07	Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
25/07	Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
18/07	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
13/07	Flamengo (W) Brazil Ladies Cup	3-0	3-1	3	3	W
10/07	Paraguay (W) Brazil Ladies Cup	2-0	3-0	9	0	W
30/05	Corinthians (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
24/05	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-1	2-1	6	6	W
21/05	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
19/05	Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	3-0	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ferroviaria (W) vs Palmeiras (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Palmeiras (W) win (46%). Probabilities: Ferroviaria (W) 26%, draw 28%, Palmeiras (W) 46%.

How many goals are expected in Ferroviaria (W) vs Palmeiras (W)?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Ferroviaria (W) 1.1 · Palmeiras (W) 1.52), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ferroviaria (W) vs Palmeiras (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.