Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 08/08, 20:00

Prediction: Atletico Mineiro (W) vs Bahia (W)

Team pages: Atletico Mineiro (W) · Bahia (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Atletico Mineiro (W)0.93

Bahia (W)1.61

1X2

21% 27% 52%

Atletico Mineiro (W) Draw Bahia (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Mineiro (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLWLWWLD

Bahia (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLDDWDWWWL

Head-to-head

Atletico Mineiro (W) 0–2 Bahia (W) (2 last)

Bahia (W)1-0Atletico Mineiro (W)
Atletico Mineiro (W)0-1Bahia (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Mineiro (W) 1502 · Bahia (W) 1558

	Atletico Mineiro (W)	Draw	Bahia (W)
Our model	21%	27%	52%
Market	21%	26%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bahia (W) (rating 1502 vs 1558).
H2H favours Bahia (W): 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Mineiro (W)	Bahia (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.7	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.1	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.20

X3.40

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.02

2 (-0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
02:29 +4’	4.20	3.40	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Mineiro (W) 0–0–2 Bahia (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/09/25 Copa do Brazil Women	Bahia (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Mineiro (W)
29/04/23 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Atletico Mineiro (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Bahia (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Corinthians (W)	14	11	1	2	36	13	34
2	Sao Paulo (W)	14	10	2	2	24	10	32
3	Palmeiras (W)	14	9	4	1	29	11	31
4	Ferroviaria (W)	14	7	5	2	20	12	26
5	Bahia (W)	14	7	3	4	24	18	24
6	Cruzeiro (W)	14	6	6	2	28	16	24
7	Internacional (W)	14	7	2	5	15	12	23
8	Flamengo (W)	14	6	5	3	21	16	23
9	Gremio (W)	14	6	3	5	20	14	21
10	Bragantino (W)	14	6	2	6	22	22	20
11	Santos (W)	14	5	5	4	17	15	20
12	Fluminense RJ (W)	14	5	4	5	16	16	19
13	Atletico Mineiro (W)	14	3	4	7	14	18	13
14	EC Juventude (W)	14	2	4	8	7	16	10
15	Mixto EC (W)	14	1	6	7	8	24	9
16	America MG (W)	14	1	3	10	6	27	6
17	EC Vitoria (W)	14	1	3	10	10	35	6
18	Botafogo (W)	14	1	2	11	8	30	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Mineiro (W)	Bahia (W)
Mixto EC (W)	0-0 D	1-1 D
Ferroviaria (W)	2-3 L	0-1 L
Palmeiras (W)	1-4 L	0-0 D
Fluminense RJ (W)	1-1 D	3-3 D
Botafogo (W)	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Atletico Mineiro (W)

DWDLWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
25/07	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-2	0-2	7	6	L
23/07	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
28/05	EC Vitoria (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-1	3-1	7	7	W
24/05	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-3	4	6	L
16/05	America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-0	2-0	6	5	W
12/05	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-2	1-4	4	4	L
01/05	Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
28/04	Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
21/04	Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	1-1	6	4	D

Bahia (W)

WLDDWDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
28/07	Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	2-1	2	9	W
22/07	Itabirito (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
28/05	Planalto EC (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
23/05	Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	3-3	2	4	D
16/05	Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	3-0	3-0	3	7	W
09/05	Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
02/05	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/04	Gremio (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
21/04	Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	3-1	1	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Mineiro (W) vs Bahia (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bahia (W) win (52%). Probabilities: Atletico Mineiro (W) 21%, draw 27%, Bahia (W) 52%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Mineiro (W) vs Bahia (W)?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Atletico Mineiro (W) 0.93 · Bahia (W) 1.61), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Mineiro (W) vs Bahia (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.