Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 08/08, 02:30

Prediction: Botafogo (W) vs Fluminense RJ (W)

Team pages: Botafogo (W) · Fluminense RJ (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

Botafogo (W)0.66

Fluminense RJ (W)1.68

1X2

14% 24% 62%

Botafogo (W) Draw Fluminense RJ (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1

Recent form · 10 last

Botafogo (W) 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLLLL

Fluminense RJ (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLLDWWLW

Head-to-head

Botafogo (W) 0–3–3 Fluminense RJ (W) (6 last)

Fluminense RJ (W)1-0Botafogo (W)
Fluminense RJ (W)2-1Botafogo (W)
Botafogo (W)1-1Fluminense RJ (W)
Fluminense RJ (W)2-0Botafogo (W)
Botafogo (W)2-2Fluminense RJ (W)
Fluminense RJ (W)1-1Botafogo (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Botafogo (W) 1384 · Fluminense RJ (W) 1533

	Botafogo (W)	Draw	Fluminense RJ (W)
Our model	13%	26%	61%
Market	14%	23%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fluminense RJ (W) (rating 1384 vs 1533).
H2H favours Fluminense RJ (W): 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Botafogo (W)	Fluminense RJ (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 2.2	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.8	2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

16.25

X3.90

21.44

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.02

2 (-1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.44 → 1.44	Pinn 1.65 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:19 +19’	6.25	3.90	1.44

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:59 +1’	5.13	3.42	1.65
06:06	5.15▲	3.46▲	1.65▼
06:53	5.17▲	3.60▲	1.61▼
07:33	4.95▼	3.53▼	1.65▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo (W) 0–3–3 Fluminense RJ (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/02/26 Brazil Copa Rio Women	Fluminense RJ (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Botafogo (W)
08/11/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca Women	Fluminense RJ (W)	2-1 HT 2-0	Botafogo (W)
02/11/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca Women	Botafogo (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	Fluminense RJ (W)
13/10/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca Women	Fluminense RJ (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Botafogo (W)
18/03/25 Brazil Copa Rio Women	Botafogo (W)	2-2 HT 0-0	Fluminense RJ (W)
26/02/25 Brazil Copa Rio Women	Fluminense RJ (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	Botafogo (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Corinthians (W)	14	11	1	2	36	13	34
2	Sao Paulo (W)	14	10	2	2	24	10	32
3	Palmeiras (W)	14	9	4	1	29	11	31
4	Ferroviaria (W)	14	7	5	2	20	12	26
5	Bahia (W)	14	7	3	4	24	18	24
6	Cruzeiro (W)	14	6	6	2	28	16	24
7	Internacional (W)	14	7	2	5	15	12	23
8	Flamengo (W)	14	6	5	3	21	16	23
9	Gremio (W)	14	6	3	5	20	14	21
10	Bragantino (W)	14	6	2	6	22	22	20
11	Santos (W)	14	5	5	4	17	15	20
12	Fluminense RJ (W)	14	5	4	5	16	16	19
13	Atletico Mineiro (W)	14	3	4	7	14	18	13
14	EC Juventude (W)	14	2	4	8	7	16	10
15	Mixto EC (W)	14	1	6	7	8	24	9
16	America MG (W)	14	1	3	10	6	27	6
17	EC Vitoria (W)	14	1	3	10	10	35	6
18	Botafogo (W)	14	1	2	11	8	30	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Botafogo (W)	Fluminense RJ (W)
Cruzeiro (W)	0-4 L	2-1 W
Bahia (W)	1-2 L	3-3 D
Bragantino (W)	0-2 L	2-1 W
Palmeiras (W)	0-3 L	1-2 L
Internacional (W)	0-1 L	0-1 L
Atletico Mineiro (W)	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 6 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Fluminense RJ (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Botafogo (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-2	0-4	3	1	L
28/07	Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-2	1	9	L
23/07	Bragantino (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
17/07	EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
27/05	EC Juventude (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	3-0	1	5	W
24/05	America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-3	12	5	L
19/05	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-3	2	6	L
11/05	Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
03/05	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-3	0	5	L
28/04	Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-2	6	8	L

Fluminense RJ (W)

LWDLLDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
25/07	Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
21/07	Cruzeiro (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	2-1	3	3	W
28/05	Minas Brasilia DF (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	2-0	8	8	W
23/05	Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	3-3	5	4	D
16/05	Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
09/05	Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
01/05	Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	1-1	9	7	D
26/04	Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
21/04	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	1-2	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Botafogo (W) vs Fluminense RJ (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fluminense RJ (W) win (62%). Probabilities: Botafogo (W) 14%, draw 24%, Fluminense RJ (W) 62%.

How many goals are expected in Botafogo (W) vs Fluminense RJ (W)?

The model expects 2.34 goals (Botafogo (W) 0.66 · Fluminense RJ (W) 1.68), with a 59% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Botafogo (W) vs Fluminense RJ (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.