Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 09/08, 23:00

Prediction: Sao Paulo (W) vs Bragantino (W)

Team pages: Sao Paulo (W) · Bragantino (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Sao Paulo (W)1.9

Bragantino (W)0.87

1X2

61% 23% 16%

Sao Paulo (W) Draw Bragantino (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sao Paulo (W) 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Bragantino (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWDWWDL

Head-to-head

Sao Paulo (W) 3–2–1 Bragantino (W) (6 last)

Sao Paulo (W)0-1Bragantino (W)
Sao Paulo (W)1-1Bragantino (W)
Bragantino (W)0-4Sao Paulo (W)
Bragantino (W)0-3Sao Paulo (W)
Bragantino (W)1-1Sao Paulo (W)
Sao Paulo (W)2-1Bragantino (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sao Paulo (W) 1594 · Bragantino (W) 1535

	Sao Paulo (W)	Draw	Bragantino (W)
Our model	61%	24%	16%
Market	61%	23%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sao Paulo (W) (rating 1594 vs 1535).
H2H favours Sao Paulo (W): 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sao Paulo (W)	Bragantino (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.5	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.6	2.5 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.45

X3.90

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.45▲	Pinn 1.47
X	4.00 → 3.90▼	Bet365 3.90
2	6.50 → 5.50▼	Pinn 6.61 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.8% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:01 +2’	1.40	4.00	6.50
15:48 +3’	1.45▲	3.90▼	5.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:46	1.50	3.70	6.57
18:37	1.49▼	3.74▲	6.58▲
21:09 +1’	1.48▼	3.78▲	6.59▲
07:15 +1’	1.47▼	3.84▲	6.61▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Paulo (W) 3–2–1 Bragantino (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Brazil Paulista Women	Sao Paulo (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Bragantino (W)
21/09/25 Brazil Paulista Women	Sao Paulo (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Bragantino (W)
07/06/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Bragantino (W)	0-4 HT 0-1	Sao Paulo (W)
15/05/25 Brazil Paulista Women	Bragantino (W)	0-3 HT 0-2	Sao Paulo (W)
04/07/24 Brazil Paulista Women	Bragantino (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Sao Paulo (W)
28/04/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Sao Paulo (W)	2-1 HT 2-1	Bragantino (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Corinthians (W)	14	11	1	2	36	13	34
2	Sao Paulo (W)	14	10	2	2	24	10	32
3	Palmeiras (W)	14	9	4	1	29	11	31
4	Bahia (W)	15	8	3	4	27	18	27
5	Ferroviaria (W)	14	7	5	2	20	12	26
6	Cruzeiro (W)	14	6	6	2	28	16	24
7	Internacional (W)	14	7	2	5	15	12	23
8	Flamengo (W)	14	6	5	3	21	16	23
9	Gremio (W)	14	6	3	5	20	14	21
10	Bragantino (W)	14	6	2	6	22	22	20
11	Santos (W)	14	5	5	4	17	15	20
12	Fluminense RJ (W)	14	5	4	5	16	16	19
13	Atletico Mineiro (W)	15	3	4	8	14	21	13
14	EC Juventude (W)	14	2	4	8	7	16	10
15	Mixto EC (W)	14	1	6	7	8	24	9
16	America MG (W)	14	1	3	10	6	27	6
17	EC Vitoria (W)	14	1	3	10	10	35	6
18	Botafogo (W)	14	1	2	11	8	30	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sao Paulo (W)	Bragantino (W)
Mirassol (W)	2-0 W	1-1 D
Palmeiras (W)	0-1 L	1-2 L
Santos (W)	3-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sao Paulo (W) (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sao Paulo (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	3-0	3-1	5	8	W
28/07	Mirassol (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
25/07	Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
22/07	Vasco da Gama (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
18/07	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
12/07	Taubate (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-1	2-1	9	2	W
06/07	Mauaense (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	3-0	15	2	W
25/05	Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
22/05	Bragantino (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
19/05	EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

Bragantino (W)

LWWLWDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
29/07	Santos (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
25/07	Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-0	2-0	1	6	W
23/07	Botafogo (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
17/07	Mirassol (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
27/05	Sao Jose SP (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	4-1	7	1	W
24/05	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
22/05	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
17/05	Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
14/05	Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-3	0-6	8	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sao Paulo (W) vs Bragantino (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Paulo (W) win (61%). Probabilities: Sao Paulo (W) 61%, draw 23%, Bragantino (W) 16%.

How many goals are expected in Sao Paulo (W) vs Bragantino (W)?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Sao Paulo (W) 1.9 · Bragantino (W) 0.87), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sao Paulo (W) vs Bragantino (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.