Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 25/07, 00:00
Prediction: Flamengo (W) vs Gremio (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.48Total
Flamengo (W)1.52
Gremio (W)0.96
1X2
Flamengo (W)
Draw
Gremio (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Flamengo (W)
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Gremio (W)
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Flamengo (W)
2–4–0
Gremio (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Flamengo (W) 1547 · Gremio (W) 1548
| Flamengo (W) | Draw | Gremio (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Market | 49% | 28% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Flamengo (W): 2-4-0.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Flamengo (W) | Gremio (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.1 | 1.5 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 44/44/11% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.8 | 2 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 4.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Flamengo (W) 2–4–0 Gremio (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Gremio (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Flamengo (W) |
| 08/06/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Flamengo (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Gremio (W) |
| 17/04/23 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Gremio (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Flamengo (W) |
| 29/05/22 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Flamengo (W) | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Gremio (W) |
| 09/02/22 Brazil Matches | Flamengo (W) | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Gremio (W) |
| 22/05/21 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Gremio (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Flamengo (W) |
Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corinthians (W) | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 13 | 28 |
| 2 | Palmeiras (W) | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 10 | 27 |
| 3 | Sao Paulo (W) | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 8 | 26 |
| 4 | Ferroviaria (W) | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 22 |
| 5 | Flamengo (W) | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 13 | 22 |
| 6 | Bahia (W) | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 16 | 21 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro (W) | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 23 | 14 | 21 |
| 8 | Internacional (W) | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 20 |
| 9 | Gremio (W) | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 12 | 17 |
| 10 | Bragantino (W) | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 17 |
| 11 | Fluminense RJ (W) | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 12 | Santos (W) | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 14 |
| 13 | Atletico Mineiro (W) | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 12 |
| 14 | EC Juventude (W) | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 9 |
| 15 | Mixto EC (W) | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 7 |
| 16 | EC Vitoria (W) | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 28 | 6 |
| 17 | America MG (W) | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 25 | 6 |
| 18 | Botafogo (W) | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 24 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Flamengo (W) | Gremio (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Internacional (W) | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Ferroviaria (W) | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Sao Paulo (W) | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| EC Vitoria (W) | 3-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Bahia (W) | 1-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Flamengo (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | 3B Sport AM (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 13/07 | Palmeiras (W) Brazil Ladies Cup |
0-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 09/07 | Club Atletico Penarol (W) Brazil Ladies Cup |
4-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 28/05 | Sao Joao PI (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 6 | W |
| 12/05 | Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 10 | D |
| 05/05 | Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 21/04 | Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
Gremio (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05 | Internacional (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 24/05 | EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 01/05 | Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 28/04 | Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/04 | Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 04/04 | EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 14 | 3 | W |
| 28/03 | Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 21/03 | Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Flamengo (W) vs Gremio (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Flamengo (W) win (49%). Probabilities: Flamengo (W) 49%, draw 28%, Gremio (W) 23%.
How many goals are expected in Flamengo (W) vs Gremio (W)?
The model expects 2.48 goals (Flamengo (W) 1.52 · Gremio (W) 0.96), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Flamengo (W) vs Gremio (W)?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.