Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 02/08, 02:00

Prediction: EC Vitoria (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)

Team pages: EC Vitoria (W) · Sao Paulo (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

EC Vitoria (W)0.44

Sao Paulo (W)2.44

1X2

5% 13% 82%

EC Vitoria (W) Draw Sao Paulo (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

EC Vitoria (W) 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Sao Paulo (W) 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWLWWW

Head-to-head

EC Vitoria (W) 0–1 Sao Paulo (W) (1 last)

EC Vitoria (W)0-6Sao Paulo (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · EC Vitoria (W) 1455 · Sao Paulo (W) 1585

	EC Vitoria (W)	Draw	Sao Paulo (W)
Our model	4%	15%	81%
Market	5%	11%	84%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sao Paulo (W) (rating 1455 vs 1585).
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	EC Vitoria (W)	Sao Paulo (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.2	1.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.7	3 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

117.00

X8.50

21.11

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.25)2.00

2 (-2.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	17.00 → 17.00	Bet365 17.00
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	1.11 → 1.11	Bet365 1.11

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:27 +1’	17.00	8.50	1.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · EC Vitoria (W) 0–0–1 Sao Paulo (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/10/20 Brazil Serie A1 Women	EC Vitoria (W)	0-6 HT 0-4	Sao Paulo (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Corinthians (W)	13	10	1	2	35	13	31
2	Sao Paulo (W)	13	9	2	2	21	9	29
3	Palmeiras (W)	13	8	4	1	27	10	28
4	Bahia (W)	13	7	3	3	24	17	24
5	Internacional (W)	13	7	2	4	14	10	23
6	Ferroviaria (W)	13	6	5	2	19	12	23
7	Flamengo (W)	13	6	5	2	21	15	23
8	Cruzeiro (W)	13	5	6	2	24	16	21
9	Bragantino (W)	13	6	2	5	21	20	20
10	Gremio (W)	13	5	3	5	19	14	18
11	Santos (W)	13	4	5	4	13	15	17
12	Fluminense RJ (W)	13	4	4	5	14	15	16
13	Atletico Mineiro (W)	13	3	3	7	14	18	12
14	EC Juventude (W)	13	2	4	7	7	12	10
15	Mixto EC (W)	13	1	5	7	8	24	8
16	America MG (W)	13	1	3	9	6	26	6
17	EC Vitoria (W)	13	1	3	9	9	32	6
18	Botafogo (W)	13	1	2	10	8	26	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	EC Vitoria (W)	Sao Paulo (W)
Corinthians (W)	0-4 L	1-2 L
Cruzeiro (W)	2-2 D	2-1 W
EC Juventude (W)	0-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sao Paulo (W) (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

EC Vitoria (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-2	0-4	1	3	L
17/07	Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
28/05	Atletico Mineiro (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-1	1-3	2	7	L
24/05	Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-2	2	8	D
19/05	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
14/05	CE Juventude Estancia (W) Copa do Brazil Women	2-1	3-2	1	4	W
11/05	EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-3	3	5	L
02/05	America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
25/04	Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	1-3	5	5	L
04/04	Gremio (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-2	0-3	1	3	L

Sao Paulo (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Mirassol (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
25/07	Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
22/07	Vasco da Gama (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
18/07	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
12/07	Taubate (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-1	2-1	9	2	W
06/07	Mauaense (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	3-0	15	2	W
25/05	Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
22/05	Bragantino (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
19/05	EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/05	Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-2	1-2	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in EC Vitoria (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sao Paulo (W) win (82%). Probabilities: EC Vitoria (W) 5%, draw 13%, Sao Paulo (W) 82%.

How many goals are expected in EC Vitoria (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)?

The model expects 2.87 goals (EC Vitoria (W) 0.44 · Sao Paulo (W) 2.44), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in EC Vitoria (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.