Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 02/08, 23:00
Prediction: Ferroviaria (W) vs Bahia (W)
Team pages: Ferroviaria (W) · Bahia (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
Ferroviaria (W)1.63
Bahia (W)1.13
1X2
Ferroviaria (W)
Draw
Bahia (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Ferroviaria (W)
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Bahia (W)
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ferroviaria (W)
3–1
Bahia (W)
(4 last)
- Ferroviaria (W)2-0Bahia (W)
- Bahia (W)3-1Ferroviaria (W)
- Ferroviaria (W)3-0Bahia (W)
- Bahia (W)0-1Ferroviaria (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ferroviaria (W) 1606 · Bahia (W) 1560
| Ferroviaria (W) | Draw | Bahia (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market | 48% | 27% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferroviaria (W) (rating 1606 vs 1560).
- H2H favours Ferroviaria (W): 3-0-1.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ferroviaria (W) | Bahia (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 0.7 | 1.7 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 10/80/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 6.4 | 2.4 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.3 | 5.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferroviaria (W) 3–0–1 Bahia (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/25 Copa do Brazil Women | Ferroviaria (W) | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Bahia (W) |
| 08/06/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Bahia (W) | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Ferroviaria (W) |
| 02/04/23 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Ferroviaria (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Bahia (W) |
| 28/04/21 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Bahia (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Ferroviaria (W) |
Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corinthians (W) | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 35 | 13 | 31 |
| 2 | Sao Paulo (W) | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 9 | 29 |
| 3 | Palmeiras (W) | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | Bahia (W) | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 17 | 24 |
| 5 | Internacional (W) | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 10 | 23 |
| 6 | Ferroviaria (W) | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 23 |
| 7 | Flamengo (W) | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 15 | 23 |
| 8 | Cruzeiro (W) | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 24 | 16 | 21 |
| 9 | Bragantino (W) | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 20 | 20 |
| 10 | Gremio (W) | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 14 | 18 |
| 11 | Santos (W) | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 17 |
| 12 | Fluminense RJ (W) | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| 13 | Atletico Mineiro (W) | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 18 | 12 |
| 14 | EC Juventude (W) | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 10 |
| 15 | Mixto EC (W) | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 8 |
| 16 | America MG (W) | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 6 |
| 17 | EC Vitoria (W) | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 32 | 6 |
| 18 | Botafogo (W) | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 26 | 5 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ferroviaria (W) | Bahia (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras (W) | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Flamengo (W) | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ferroviaria (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Taubate (W) Brazil Paulista Women |
2-2 | 4-2 | 13 | 1 | W |
| 26/07 | EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 21/07 | Corinthians (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 18/07 | Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 28/05 | UD Alagoana (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
5-0 | 8-0 | 15 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 21/05 | Palmeiras (W) Brazil Paulista Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 19/05 | EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 14/05 | Mirassol (W) Brazil Paulista Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 10 | D |
Bahia (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 22/07 | Itabirito (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 28/05 | Planalto EC (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 3-3 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 28/04 | Gremio (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 21/04 | Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 01/04 | America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ferroviaria (W) vs Bahia (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ferroviaria (W) win (48%). Probabilities: Ferroviaria (W) 48%, draw 27%, Bahia (W) 25%.
How many goals are expected in Ferroviaria (W) vs Bahia (W)?
The model expects 2.76 goals (Ferroviaria (W) 1.63 · Bahia (W) 1.13), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ferroviaria (W) vs Bahia (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.