Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 01/08, 23:00

Prediction: Mixto EC (W) vs Atletico Mineiro (W)

Team pages: Mixto EC (W) · Atletico Mineiro (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Mixto EC (W)1.01

Atletico Mineiro (W)1.37

1X2

27% 29% 44%

Mixto EC (W) Draw Atletico Mineiro (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Mixto EC (W) 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

DDLLLDLLLD

Atletico Mineiro (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWDLWLWWL

Head-to-head

Mixto EC (W) 0–1 Atletico Mineiro (W) (1 last)

Atletico Mineiro (W)4-1Mixto EC (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mixto EC (W) 1428 · Atletico Mineiro (W) 1501

	Mixto EC (W)	Draw	Atletico Mineiro (W)
Our model	26%	30%	44%
Market	28%	28%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Mineiro (W) (rating 1428 vs 1501).
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mixto EC (W)	Atletico Mineiro (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 1.8	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 3.4	2.7 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	5.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.25

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.02

2 (-0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:20 +5’	3.25	3.25	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Mixto EC (W) 0–0–1 Atletico Mineiro (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/21 Brazil Campeonato Brasileiro A2 Women	Atletico Mineiro (W)	4-1 HT 1-1	Mixto EC (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Corinthians (W)	13	10	1	2	35	13	31
2	Sao Paulo (W)	13	9	2	2	21	9	29
3	Palmeiras (W)	13	8	4	1	27	10	28
4	Bahia (W)	13	7	3	3	24	17	24
5	Internacional (W)	13	7	2	4	14	10	23
6	Ferroviaria (W)	13	6	5	2	19	12	23
7	Flamengo (W)	13	6	5	2	21	15	23
8	Cruzeiro (W)	13	5	6	2	24	16	21
9	Bragantino (W)	13	6	2	5	21	20	20
10	Gremio (W)	13	5	3	5	19	14	18
11	Santos (W)	13	4	5	4	13	15	17
12	Fluminense RJ (W)	13	4	4	5	14	15	16
13	Atletico Mineiro (W)	13	3	3	7	14	18	12
14	EC Juventude (W)	13	2	4	7	7	12	10
15	Mixto EC (W)	13	1	5	7	8	24	8
16	America MG (W)	13	1	3	9	6	26	6
17	EC Vitoria (W)	13	1	3	9	9	32	6
18	Botafogo (W)	13	1	2	10	8	26	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mixto EC (W)	Atletico Mineiro (W)
Palmeiras (W)	0-0 D	1-4 L
Ferroviaria (W)	0-3 L	2-3 L
Fluminense RJ (W)	0-2 L	1-1 D
Bragantino (W)	1-3 L	0-2 L
America MG (W)	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Mineiro (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Mixto EC (W)

DDLLLDLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
26/05	Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-3	1-4	3	7	L
16/05	Gremio (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
14/05	Sociedade Acao (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
09/05	Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
01/05	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
26/04	Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
21/04	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-2	1-3	3	0	L
03/04	Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
28/03	America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	1-1	2	4	D

Atletico Mineiro (W)

LDWDLWLWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-2	0-2	7	6	L
23/07	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
28/05	EC Vitoria (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-1	3-1	7	7	W
24/05	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-3	4	6	L
16/05	America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-0	2-0	6	5	W
12/05	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-2	1-4	4	4	L
01/05	Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
28/04	Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
21/04	Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
31/03	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	1-2	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mixto EC (W) vs Atletico Mineiro (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Mineiro (W) win (44%). Probabilities: Mixto EC (W) 27%, draw 29%, Atletico Mineiro (W) 44%.

How many goals are expected in Mixto EC (W) vs Atletico Mineiro (W)?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Mixto EC (W) 1.01 · Atletico Mineiro (W) 1.37), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mixto EC (W) vs Atletico Mineiro (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.