Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 28/07, 00:00
Prediction: Bahia (W) vs Botafogo (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.97Total
Bahia (W)2.23
Botafogo (W)0.74
1X2
Bahia (W)
Draw
Botafogo (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Bahia (W)
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Botafogo (W)
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bahia (W)
1–2–2
Botafogo (W)
(5 last)
- Bahia (W)1-0Botafogo (W)
- Botafogo (W)1-0Bahia (W)
- Botafogo (W)0-0Bahia (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bahia (W) 1567 · Botafogo (W) 1404
| Bahia (W) | Draw | Botafogo (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 20% | 10% |
| Market | 71% | 19% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.97 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bahia (W) (rating 1567 vs 1404).
- H2H favours Botafogo (W): 2-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bahia (W) | Botafogo (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.1 | 2.2 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.2 | 3.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bahia (W) 1–2–2 Botafogo (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/22 Brazil Campeonato Brasileiro A2 Women | Bahia (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Botafogo (W) |
| 02/07/22 Brazil Campeonato Brasileiro A2 Women | Botafogo (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Bahia (W) |
| 18/04/21 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Botafogo (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Bahia (W) |
| 17/01/21 Brazil Campeonato Brasileiro A2 Women | Bahia (W) | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Botafogo (W) |
| 10/01/21 Brazil Campeonato Brasileiro A2 Women | Botafogo (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Bahia (W) |
Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sao Paulo (W) | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 9 | 29 |
| 2 | Corinthians (W) | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 13 | 28 |
| 3 | Palmeiras (W) | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 10 | 27 |
| 4 | Internacional (W) | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Flamengo (W) | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 15 | 23 |
| 6 | Ferroviaria (W) | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 22 |
| 7 | Bahia (W) | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 16 | 21 |
| 8 | Cruzeiro (W) | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 24 | 16 | 21 |
| 9 | Gremio (W) | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 14 | 18 |
| 10 | Bragantino (W) | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 17 |
| 11 | Santos (W) | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 17 |
| 12 | Fluminense RJ (W) | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| 13 | Atletico Mineiro (W) | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 12 |
| 14 | EC Juventude (W) | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 9 |
| 15 | Mixto EC (W) | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 7 |
| 16 | EC Vitoria (W) | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 28 | 6 |
| 17 | America MG (W) | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 6 |
| 18 | Botafogo (W) | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 24 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bahia (W) | Botafogo (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Internacional (W) | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Palmeiras (W) | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| America MG (W) | 3-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Bragantino (W) | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 0 L | 0 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Bahia (W) (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bahia (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Itabirito (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 28/05 | Planalto EC (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 3-3 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 28/04 | Gremio (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 21/04 | Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 01/04 | America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 8 | W |
| 28/03 | Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
Botafogo (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Bragantino (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 17/07 | EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 27/05 | EC Juventude (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 19/05 | Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 11/05 | Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 28/04 | Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 04/04 | Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 27/03 | Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bahia (W) vs Botafogo (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bahia (W) win (70%). Probabilities: Bahia (W) 70%, draw 19%, Botafogo (W) 10%.
How many goals are expected in Bahia (W) vs Botafogo (W)?
The model expects 2.97 goals (Bahia (W) 2.23 · Botafogo (W) 0.74), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Bahia (W) vs Botafogo (W)?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.