Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 25/07, 02:30
Prediction: Cruzeiro (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.71Total
Cruzeiro (W)1.25
Sao Paulo (W)1.46
1X2
Cruzeiro (W)
Draw
Sao Paulo (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Cruzeiro (W)
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Sao Paulo (W)
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cruzeiro (W)
0–4–2
Sao Paulo (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cruzeiro (W) 1524 · Sao Paulo (W) 1575
| Cruzeiro (W) | Draw | Sao Paulo (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Market | 31% | 29% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sao Paulo (W) (rating 1524 vs 1575).
- H2H favours Sao Paulo (W): 2-4-0.
- High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cruzeiro (W) | Sao Paulo (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.3 | 1.5 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.5 | 2.5 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.1 | 2.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cruzeiro (W) 0–4–2 Sao Paulo (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Sao Paulo (W) | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Cruzeiro (W) |
| 16/03/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Cruzeiro (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Sao Paulo (W) |
| 07/12/23 Brazil Ladies Cup | Sao Paulo (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cruzeiro (W) |
| 12/03/23 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Sao Paulo (W) | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Cruzeiro (W) |
| 04/08/22 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Cruzeiro (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sao Paulo (W) |
| 26/05/21 Brazil Serie A1 Women | Cruzeiro (W) | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Sao Paulo (W) |
Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corinthians (W) | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 13 | 28 |
| 2 | Palmeiras (W) | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 10 | 27 |
| 3 | Sao Paulo (W) | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 8 | 26 |
| 4 | Ferroviaria (W) | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 22 |
| 5 | Flamengo (W) | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 13 | 22 |
| 6 | Bahia (W) | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 16 | 21 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro (W) | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 23 | 14 | 21 |
| 8 | Internacional (W) | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 20 |
| 9 | Gremio (W) | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 12 | 17 |
| 10 | Bragantino (W) | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 17 |
| 11 | Fluminense RJ (W) | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 12 | Santos (W) | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 14 |
| 13 | Atletico Mineiro (W) | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 12 |
| 14 | EC Juventude (W) | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 9 |
| 15 | Mixto EC (W) | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 7 |
| 16 | EC Vitoria (W) | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 28 | 6 |
| 17 | America MG (W) | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 25 | 6 |
| 18 | Botafogo (W) | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 24 | 5 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cruzeiro (W) | Sao Paulo (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Corinthians (W) | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| EC Juventude (W) | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Bragantino (W) | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Cruzeiro (W) (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cruzeiro (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Fluminense RJ (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 28/05 | Doce Mel EC (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
1-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 19/05 | Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 01/05 | EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 22/04 | Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 31/03 | Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 26/03 | Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
3-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
Sao Paulo (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Vasco da Gama (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Palmeiras (W) Brazil Paulista Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 12/07 | Taubate (W) Brazil Paulista Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 06/07 | Mauaense (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 15 | 2 | W |
| 25/05 | Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | Bragantino (W) Brazil Paulista Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/05 | EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 12/05 | Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 08/05 | Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/05 | Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cruzeiro (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Sao Paulo (W) win (41%). Probabilities: Cruzeiro (W) 31%, draw 28%, Sao Paulo (W) 41%.
How many goals are expected in Cruzeiro (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)?
The model expects 2.71 goals (Cruzeiro (W) 1.25 · Sao Paulo (W) 1.46), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.