Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 13/09, 23:00
Prediction: New York City FC II vs CT United
Team pages: New York City FC II · CT United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.09Total
New York City FC II1.96
CT United2.13
1X2
New York City FC II
Draw
CT United
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
1-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
New York City FC II
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
CT United
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
New York City FC II
2–0
CT United
(2 last)
- CT United1-4New York City FC II
- New York City FC II2-1CT United
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · New York City FC II 1504 · CT United 1517
| New York City FC II | Draw | CT United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 22% | 42% |
| Market | 35% | 23% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.09 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours New York City FC II: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| New York City FC II | CT United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 2 | 2.4 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.2 | 1.5 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.6 | 5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · New York City FC II 2–0–0 CT United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | CT United | 1-4 HT 1-2 | New York City FC II |
| 19/04/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 2-1 HT 0-1 | CT United |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 63 | 36 | 54 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 51 | 38 | 50 |
| 3 | Atlanta United II | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 57 | 40 | 45 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew II | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 41 | 45 |
| 5 | New York Red Bulls II | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 56 | 45 | 44 |
| 6 | CT United | 26 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 52 | 49 | 43 |
| 7 | New England Revolution II | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 43 | 40 | 43 |
| 8 | New York City FC II | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 48 | 43 | 42 |
| 9 | Orlando City II | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 50 | 51 | 41 |
| 10 | Toronto FC II | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 46 | 50 | 39 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 38 | 39 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire II | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 49 | 45 | 39 |
| 13 | Huntsville City | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 43 | 45 | 38 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 37 | 50 | 28 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 26 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 30 | 59 | 19 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 27 | 63 | 15 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | New York City FC II | CT United |
|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls II | 4-2 W | 2-4 L |
| Toronto FC II | 0-2 L | 3-2 W |
| New England Revolution II | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| FC Cincinnati II | 5-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Columbus Crew II | 2-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Orlando City II | 3-0 W | 4-2 W |
| Philadelphia Union II | 1-1 D | 4-2 W |
| Atlanta United II | 2-3 L | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 3 L | 5 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: New York City FC II (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
New York City FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 02/09 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-3 | 2-4 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 29/08 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 19/08 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 11/08 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 10 | D |
| 26/07 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 23/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
CT United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 30/08 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-4 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 23/08 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
4-0 | 4-2 | 3 | 12 | W |
| 20/08 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 17/08 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 09/08 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 27/07 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 20/07 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 13/07 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in New York City FC II vs CT United?
According to our model, the most likely result is an CT United win (42%). Probabilities: New York City FC II 35%, draw 22%, CT United 42%.
How many goals are expected in New York City FC II vs CT United?
The model expects 4.09 goals (New York City FC II 1.96 · CT United 2.13), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in New York City FC II vs CT United?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.