Prediction: North Geelong vs Port Melbourne SC
Expected goals: 3.52 (North Geelong 2.44 · Port Melbourne SC 1.08). The model gives 67% home, 18% draw, 15% away. Under 3.75 goals (56%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 2-1.
On recent form, North Geelong is 4-0-6 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Port Melbourne SC 1-2-7 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, North Geelong won 1 and Port Melbourne SC 5.
| North Geelong | Draw | Port Melbourne SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| Market | 67% | 18% | 15% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours North Geelong (rating 1497 vs 1407).
- H2H favours Port Melbourne SC: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| North Geelong | Port Melbourne SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 2.1 | 0.4 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1.4 | 0.3 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.1 | 1 / 2.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.5 | 2.5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · North Geelong 1–0–5 Port Melbourne SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Port Melbourne SC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | North Geelong |
| 27/05/23 Australia Victoria Premier League | Port Melbourne SC | 4-0 HT 3-0 | North Geelong |
| 25/02/23 Australia Victoria Premier League | North Geelong | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Port Melbourne SC |
| 17/06/17 Australia Victoria Premier League | Port Melbourne SC | 2-1 HT 0-0 | North Geelong |
| 11/03/17 Australia Victoria Premier League | North Geelong | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Port Melbourne SC |
| 31/07/15 Australia NPL Victoria | Port Melbourne SC | 3-2 | North Geelong |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northcote City | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 16 | 39 |
| 2 | Melbourne Knights | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 15 | 35 |
| 3 | Brunswick Juventus | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 24 | 33 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 43 | 29 | 30 |
| 5 | Bulleen Lions | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 23 | 29 |
| 6 | North Geelong | 17 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 33 | 27 |
| 7 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 26 |
| 8 | Eltham Redbacks | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 33 | 25 |
| 9 | Manningham United Blues | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 36 | 25 |
| 10 | Brunswick City | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 34 | 23 |
| 11 | Langwarrin | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 36 | 22 |
| 12 | Western United FC NPL | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 43 | 22 |
| 13 | North Sunshine Eagles | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 21 | 34 | 14 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne SC | 18 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 42 | 9 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | North Geelong | Port Melbourne SC |
|---|---|---|
| Manningham United Blues | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Northcote City | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Melbourne Knights | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Langwarrin | 2-4 L | 0-5 L |
| Western United FC NPL | 2-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Brunswick City | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Bulleen Lions | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Brunswick Juventus | 3-4 L | 0-2 L |
| Melbourne Victory NPL | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 6 L | 1 W 2 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: North Geelong (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
North Geelong
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 13/06 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-3 | 2-4 | 11 | 8 | L |
| 10/05 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 11/04 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 5 | L |
Port Melbourne SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 0-5 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 13/06 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 06/06 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 01/06 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-5 | 0-8 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 01/05 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 17/04 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in North Geelong vs Port Melbourne SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a North Geelong win (67%). Probabilities: North Geelong 67%, draw 18%, Port Melbourne SC 15%.
How many goals are expected in North Geelong vs Port Melbourne SC?
The model expects 3.52 goals (North Geelong 2.44 · Port Melbourne SC 1.08), with a 56% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in North Geelong vs Port Melbourne SC?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.