Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 18/07, 10:15
Prediction: FC Melbourne Srbija vs Port Melbourne SC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.99Total
FC Melbourne Srbija2.18
Port Melbourne SC0.81
1X2
FC Melbourne Srbija
Draw
Port Melbourne SC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
FC Melbourne Srbija
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Port Melbourne SC
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Melbourne Srbija
0–1
Port Melbourne SC
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Melbourne Srbija 1574 · Port Melbourne SC 1403
| FC Melbourne Srbija | Draw | Port Melbourne SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 20% | 12% |
| Market | 70% | 16% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.99 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Melbourne Srbija (rating 1574 vs 1403).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Melbourne Srbija | Port Melbourne SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.1 | 0.2 / 1.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 0/40/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 3.6 | 1.4 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0.1 | 2.4 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Melbourne Srbija 0–0–1 Port Melbourne SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Port Melbourne SC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FC Melbourne Srbija |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Knights | 20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 16 | 41 |
| 2 | Northcote City | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 20 | 39 |
| 3 | Brunswick Juventus | 20 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 30 | 39 |
| 4 | Eltham Redbacks | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 48 | 35 | 31 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 48 | 35 | 31 |
| 6 | Bulleen Lions | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 33 | 27 | 30 |
| 7 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 22 | 29 |
| 8 | Manningham United Blues | 20 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 38 | 29 |
| 9 | North Geelong | 19 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 33 | 37 | 28 |
| 10 | Western United FC NPL | 20 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 42 | 50 | 25 |
| 11 | Brunswick City | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 36 | 42 | 24 |
| 12 | Langwarrin | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 36 | 45 | 23 |
| 13 | North Sunshine Eagles | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 28 | 36 | 18 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne SC | 20 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 10 | 48 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Melbourne Srbija | Port Melbourne SC |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Knights | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| North Sunshine Eagles | 2-1 W | 0-5 L |
| Langwarrin | 0-0 D | 0-5 L |
| Western United FC NPL | 3-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Brunswick City | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Bulleen Lions | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Brunswick Juventus | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Melbourne Victory NPL | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 2 D 0 L | 0 W 1 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Melbourne Srbija (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Melbourne Srbija
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 13/06 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 28/04 | St Albans Saints Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
Port Melbourne SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-3 | 0-5 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 19/06 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 0-5 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 13/06 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 06/06 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 01/06 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-5 | 0-8 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 01/05 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Melbourne Srbija vs Port Melbourne SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Melbourne Srbija win (69%). Probabilities: FC Melbourne Srbija 69%, draw 18%, Port Melbourne SC 13%.
How many goals are expected in FC Melbourne Srbija vs Port Melbourne SC?
The model expects 2.99 goals (FC Melbourne Srbija 2.18 · Port Melbourne SC 0.81), with a 58% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Melbourne Srbija vs Port Melbourne SC?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.