Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 18/07, 09:00
Prediction: North Geelong vs Melbourne Victory NPL
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.9Total
North Geelong1.76
Melbourne Victory NPL2.14
1X2
North Geelong
Draw
Melbourne Victory NPL
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
North Geelong
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Melbourne Victory NPL
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
North Geelong
0–3
Melbourne Victory NPL
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · North Geelong 1479 · Melbourne Victory NPL 1539
| North Geelong | Draw | Melbourne Victory NPL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 22% | 46% |
| Market | 32% | 21% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.9 goals · Bet365 line 4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melbourne Victory NPL (rating 1479 vs 1539).
- H2H favours Melbourne Victory NPL: 3-0-0.
- High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| North Geelong | Melbourne Victory NPL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.9 | 2.8 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.1 | 2.3 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.6 | 4.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · North Geelong 0–0–3 Melbourne Victory NPL
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 2-1 HT 1-0 | North Geelong |
| 15/06/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | North Geelong | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Melbourne Victory NPL |
| 10/03/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 4-0 HT 3-0 | North Geelong |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Knights | 20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 16 | 41 |
| 2 | Northcote City | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 20 | 39 |
| 3 | Brunswick Juventus | 20 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 30 | 39 |
| 4 | Eltham Redbacks | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 48 | 35 | 31 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 48 | 35 | 31 |
| 6 | Bulleen Lions | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 33 | 27 | 30 |
| 7 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 22 | 29 |
| 8 | Manningham United Blues | 20 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 38 | 29 |
| 9 | North Geelong | 19 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 33 | 37 | 28 |
| 10 | Western United FC NPL | 20 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 42 | 50 | 25 |
| 11 | Brunswick City | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 36 | 42 | 24 |
| 12 | Langwarrin | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 36 | 45 | 23 |
| 13 | North Sunshine Eagles | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 28 | 36 | 18 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne SC | 20 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 10 | 48 | 10 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | North Geelong | Melbourne Victory NPL |
|---|---|---|
| Eltham Redbacks | 1-3 L | 3-3 D |
| Port Melbourne SC | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Manningham United Blues | 3-2 W | 4-0 W |
| Northcote City | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Melbourne Knights | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Langwarrin | 2-4 L | 3-3 D |
| Western United FC NPL | 2-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Brunswick City | 1-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Bulleen Lions | 0-3 L | 4-2 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 5 L | 4 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Melbourne Victory NPL (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
North Geelong
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 04/07 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 13/06 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-3 | 2-4 | 11 | 8 | L |
| 10/05 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
Melbourne Victory NPL
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 05/07 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 22/06 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 13/06 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 4-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 08/06 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 01/06 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 22/05 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 3-3 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 11/05 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 01/05 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in North Geelong vs Melbourne Victory NPL?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Melbourne Victory NPL win (47%). Probabilities: North Geelong 32%, draw 21%, Melbourne Victory NPL 47%.
How many goals are expected in North Geelong vs Melbourne Victory NPL?
The model expects 3.9 goals (North Geelong 1.76 · Melbourne Victory NPL 2.14), with a 54% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in North Geelong vs Melbourne Victory NPL?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.