Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 17/07, 12:30
Prediction: Melbourne Knights vs Brunswick City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.47Total
Melbourne Knights2.34
Brunswick City1.14
1X2
Melbourne Knights
Draw
Brunswick City
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Melbourne Knights
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Brunswick City
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Melbourne Knights
1–0
Brunswick City
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Melbourne Knights 1573 · Brunswick City 1469
| Melbourne Knights | Draw | Brunswick City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 20% | 16% |
| Market | 64% | 19% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melbourne Knights (rating 1573 vs 1469).
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Melbourne Knights | Brunswick City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 0.8 | 1.5 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 6.9 | 1.8 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 3.4 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne Knights 1–0–0 Brunswick City
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Brunswick City | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Melbourne Knights |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Knights | 20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 16 | 41 |
| 2 | Northcote City | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 20 | 39 |
| 3 | Brunswick Juventus | 20 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 30 | 39 |
| 4 | Eltham Redbacks | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 48 | 35 | 31 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 48 | 35 | 31 |
| 6 | Bulleen Lions | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 33 | 27 | 30 |
| 7 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 22 | 29 |
| 8 | Manningham United Blues | 20 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 38 | 29 |
| 9 | North Geelong | 19 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 33 | 37 | 28 |
| 10 | Western United FC NPL | 20 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 42 | 50 | 25 |
| 11 | Brunswick City | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 36 | 42 | 24 |
| 12 | Langwarrin | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 36 | 45 | 23 |
| 13 | North Sunshine Eagles | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 28 | 36 | 18 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne SC | 20 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 10 | 48 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Melbourne Knights | Brunswick City |
|---|---|---|
| Northcote City | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Bulleen Lions | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| FC Melbourne Srbija | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Brunswick Juventus | 0-1 L | 2-7 L |
| North Sunshine Eagles | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Melbourne Victory NPL | 2-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Eltham Redbacks | 4-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Port Melbourne SC | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Melbourne Knights (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Melbourne Knights
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 03/07 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 12/06 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 06/06 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 01/06 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 15/05 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-1 | 4-1 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 01/05 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
Brunswick City
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 03/07 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-3 | 2-7 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 22/06 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 12/06 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 06/06 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
3-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 29/05 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 22/05 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 12/05 | Avondale Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 08/05 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Melbourne Knights vs Brunswick City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Melbourne Knights win (64%). Probabilities: Melbourne Knights 64%, draw 20%, Brunswick City 17%.
How many goals are expected in Melbourne Knights vs Brunswick City?
The model expects 3.47 goals (Melbourne Knights 2.34 · Brunswick City 1.14), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Melbourne Knights vs Brunswick City?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.