Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 18/07, 07:00
Prediction: North Sunshine Eagles vs Eltham Redbacks
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.19Total
North Sunshine Eagles2.06
Eltham Redbacks2.14
1X2
North Sunshine Eagles
Draw
Eltham Redbacks
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 63%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
North Sunshine Eagles
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Eltham Redbacks
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
North Sunshine Eagles
1–1
Eltham Redbacks
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · North Sunshine Eagles 1493 · Eltham Redbacks 1491
| North Sunshine Eagles | Draw | Eltham Redbacks | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 21% | 41% |
| Market | 38% | 22% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.19 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| North Sunshine Eagles | Eltham Redbacks | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.6 | 2.9 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 1.8 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.8 | 3 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · North Sunshine Eagles 1–0–1 Eltham Redbacks
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/26 Australia Cup Qualifying | North Sunshine Eagles | 4-2 HT 2-2 | Eltham Redbacks |
| 11/04/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Eltham Redbacks | 3-2 HT 1-1 | North Sunshine Eagles |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Knights | 20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 16 | 41 |
| 2 | Northcote City | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 20 | 39 |
| 3 | Brunswick Juventus | 20 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 30 | 39 |
| 4 | Eltham Redbacks | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 48 | 35 | 31 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 48 | 35 | 31 |
| 6 | Bulleen Lions | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 33 | 27 | 30 |
| 7 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 22 | 29 |
| 8 | Manningham United Blues | 20 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 38 | 29 |
| 9 | North Geelong | 19 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 33 | 37 | 28 |
| 10 | Western United FC NPL | 20 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 42 | 50 | 25 |
| 11 | Brunswick City | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 36 | 42 | 24 |
| 12 | Langwarrin | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 36 | 45 | 23 |
| 13 | North Sunshine Eagles | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 28 | 36 | 18 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne SC | 20 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 10 | 48 | 10 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | North Sunshine Eagles | Eltham Redbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Port Melbourne SC | 5-0 W | 8-0 W |
| Melbourne Knights | 1-1 D | 0-4 L |
| North Geelong | 0-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Langwarrin | 0-1 L | 6-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Eltham Redbacks (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
North Sunshine Eagles
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | White City FK Beograd Australia Cup |
0-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 11/07 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
3-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 07/07 | Preston Lions Australia Victoria Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 10 | D |
| 20/06 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 06/06 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 02/06 | Avondale Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
Eltham Redbacks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 19/06 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 12/06 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 05/06 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 30/05 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 3-3 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 15/05 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 12/05 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-2 | 2-4 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
5-0 | 8-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in North Sunshine Eagles vs Eltham Redbacks?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Eltham Redbacks win (41%). Probabilities: North Sunshine Eagles 38%, draw 22%, Eltham Redbacks 41%.
How many goals are expected in North Sunshine Eagles vs Eltham Redbacks?
The model expects 4.19 goals (North Sunshine Eagles 2.06 · Eltham Redbacks 2.14), with a 55% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in North Sunshine Eagles vs Eltham Redbacks?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.