Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 17/07, 12:30
Prediction: Northcote City vs Manningham United Blues
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.15Total
Northcote City2.01
Manningham United Blues1.14
1X2
Northcote City
Draw
Manningham United Blues
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Northcote City
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Manningham United Blues
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Northcote City
1–2–3
Manningham United Blues
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Northcote City 1492 · Manningham United Blues 1453
| Northcote City | Draw | Manningham United Blues | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Market | 58% | 21% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Manningham United Blues: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Northcote City | Manningham United Blues | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.3 | 1.5 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.3 | 2.7 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.1 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Northcote City 1–2–3 Manningham United Blues
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Manningham United Blues | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Northcote City |
| 18/08/25 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Northcote City | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Manningham United Blues |
| 03/05/25 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Manningham United Blues | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Northcote City |
| 19/08/23 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | Manningham United Blues | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Northcote City |
| 12/05/23 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | Northcote City | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Manningham United Blues |
| 29/07/22 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | Northcote City | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Manningham United Blues |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Knights | 20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 16 | 41 |
| 2 | Northcote City | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 20 | 39 |
| 3 | Brunswick Juventus | 20 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 30 | 39 |
| 4 | Eltham Redbacks | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 48 | 35 | 31 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 48 | 35 | 31 |
| 6 | Bulleen Lions | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 33 | 27 | 30 |
| 7 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 22 | 29 |
| 8 | Manningham United Blues | 20 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 38 | 29 |
| 9 | North Geelong | 19 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 33 | 37 | 28 |
| 10 | Western United FC NPL | 20 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 42 | 50 | 25 |
| 11 | Brunswick City | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 36 | 42 | 24 |
| 12 | Langwarrin | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 36 | 45 | 23 |
| 13 | North Sunshine Eagles | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 28 | 36 | 18 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne SC | 20 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 10 | 48 | 10 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Northcote City | Manningham United Blues |
|---|---|---|
| North Sunshine Eagles | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| North Geelong | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Langwarrin | 3-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Western United FC NPL | 2-1 W | 3-4 L |
| Brunswick City | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Bulleen Lions | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Brunswick Juventus | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Northcote City (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Northcote City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 03/07 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 05/06 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 12/05 | Bentleigh Greens Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
Manningham United Blues
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 10 | D |
| 20/06 | North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 13/06 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-2 | 3-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 29/05 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 9 | 0 | L |
| 23/05 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 10 | W |
| 16/05 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 11/05 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Northcote City vs Manningham United Blues?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Northcote City win (57%). Probabilities: Northcote City 57%, draw 22%, Manningham United Blues 21%.
How many goals are expected in Northcote City vs Manningham United Blues?
The model expects 3.15 goals (Northcote City 2.01 · Manningham United Blues 1.14), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Northcote City vs Manningham United Blues?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.