Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 24/07, 12:30
Prediction: Eltham Redbacks vs FC Melbourne Srbija
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.11Total
Eltham Redbacks1.79
FC Melbourne Srbija1.32
1X2
Eltham Redbacks
Draw
FC Melbourne Srbija
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Eltham Redbacks
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
FC Melbourne Srbija
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Eltham Redbacks
1–4–0
FC Melbourne Srbija
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Eltham Redbacks 1489 · FC Melbourne Srbija 1542
| Eltham Redbacks | Draw | FC Melbourne Srbija | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 25% | 27% |
| Market | 49% | 22% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Melbourne Srbija (rating 1489 vs 1542).
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Eltham Redbacks | FC Melbourne Srbija | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 2.5 | 1.3 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 1 | 0.7 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 6.4 | 2.6 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 2.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Eltham Redbacks 1–4–0 FC Melbourne Srbija
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Eltham Redbacks |
| 01/07/23 Australia Victoria State League 1 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Eltham Redbacks |
| 14/04/23 Australia Victoria State League 1 | Eltham Redbacks | 3-3 HT 1-1 | FC Melbourne Srbija |
| 23/07/22 Australia Victoria State League 1 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Eltham Redbacks |
| 06/05/22 Australia Victoria State League 1 | Eltham Redbacks | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FC Melbourne Srbija |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Knights | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 37 | 16 | 44 |
| 2 | Brunswick Juventus | 21 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 41 | 30 | 42 |
| 3 | Northcote City | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 37 | 23 | 40 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 50 | 35 | 34 |
| 5 | Bulleen Lions | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 29 | 33 |
| 6 | Eltham Redbacks | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 49 | 36 | 32 |
| 7 | Manningham United Blues | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 37 | 41 | 30 |
| 8 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 20 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 23 | 29 |
| 9 | North Geelong | 20 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 39 | 28 |
| 10 | Western United FC NPL | 21 | 8 | 1 | 12 | 44 | 54 | 25 |
| 11 | Brunswick City | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 36 | 44 | 24 |
| 12 | Langwarrin | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 46 | 23 |
| 13 | North Sunshine Eagles | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 29 | 37 | 19 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne SC | 21 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 48 | 13 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Eltham Redbacks | FC Melbourne Srbija |
|---|---|---|
| North Sunshine Eagles | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Langwarrin | 6-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Western United FC NPL | 3-4 L | 3-0 W |
| Brunswick City | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Bulleen Lions | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Brunswick Juventus | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Melbourne Knights | 0-4 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 4 L | 5 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Melbourne Srbija (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Eltham Redbacks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 11/07 | North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 19/06 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 12/06 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 05/06 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 30/05 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 3-3 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 15/05 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 12/05 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-2 | 2-4 | 9 | 2 | L |
FC Melbourne Srbija
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 14 | 7 | L |
| 03/07 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 13/06 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 28/04 | St Albans Saints Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Eltham Redbacks vs FC Melbourne Srbija?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Eltham Redbacks win (48%). Probabilities: Eltham Redbacks 48%, draw 24%, FC Melbourne Srbija 28%.
How many goals are expected in Eltham Redbacks vs FC Melbourne Srbija?
The model expects 3.11 goals (Eltham Redbacks 1.79 · FC Melbourne Srbija 1.32), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Eltham Redbacks vs FC Melbourne Srbija?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.