Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 27/07, 11:30

Prediction: Melbourne Victory NPL vs North Sunshine Eagles

Team pages: Melbourne Victory NPL · North Sunshine Eagles

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.94Total

Melbourne Victory NPL2.43

North Sunshine Eagles1.51

1X2

57% 20% 22%

Melbourne Victory NPL Draw North Sunshine Eagles

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Melbourne Victory NPL 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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North Sunshine Eagles 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Melbourne Victory NPL 4–1–1 North Sunshine Eagles (6 last)

North Sunshine Eagles1-4Melbourne Victory NPL
North Sunshine Eagles1-0Melbourne Victory NPL
Melbourne Victory NPL3-2North Sunshine Eagles
North Sunshine Eagles0-0Melbourne Victory NPL
North Sunshine Eagles0-1Melbourne Victory NPL
Melbourne Victory NPL1-0North Sunshine Eagles

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Melbourne Victory NPL 1574 · North Sunshine Eagles 1467

	Melbourne Victory NPL	Draw	North Sunshine Eagles
Our model	57%	20%	22%
Market	57%	20%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melbourne Victory NPL (rating 1574 vs 1467).
H2H favours Melbourne Victory NPL: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Melbourne Victory NPL	North Sunshine Eagles
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 1.5	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.6	2.6 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.4	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.50

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 11:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.60▼	Pinn 1.61
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 5.03 ★
2	3.40 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:22 +1’	1.67	4.50	3.40
14:12 +7’	1.73▲	4.50	3.25▼
05:58 +2’	1.80▲	4.33▼	3.10▼
06:57 +3’	1.65▼	4.50▲	3.70▲
07:59 +1’	1.60▼	4.50	4.00▲
08:58 +2’	1.55▼	4.50	4.33▲
10:58 +2’	1.60▲	4.50	4.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:16	1.81	4.27	3.15
19:08 +1’	1.81▲	4.29▲	3.12▼
05:59 +1’	1.82▲	4.30▲	3.03▼
07:00	1.82	4.31▲	3.02▼
07:59 +1’	1.83▲	4.38▲	3.04▲
08:59 +1’	1.66▼	4.54▲	3.44▲
10:00	1.66▼	4.76▲	3.50▲
10:59 +1’	1.61▼	5.03▲	3.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne Victory NPL 4–1–1 North Sunshine Eagles

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	North Sunshine Eagles	1-4 HT 0-1	Melbourne Victory NPL
14/07/23 Australia Victoria Premier League 3	North Sunshine Eagles	1-0 HT 1-0	Melbourne Victory NPL
30/04/23 Australia Victoria Premier League 3	Melbourne Victory NPL	3-2 HT 2-2	North Sunshine Eagles
14/05/22 Australia Victoria Premier League 3	North Sunshine Eagles	0-0	Melbourne Victory NPL
31/07/21 Australia Victoria Premier League 3	North Sunshine Eagles	0-1 HT 0-0	Melbourne Victory NPL
09/05/21 Australia Victoria Premier League 3	Melbourne Victory NPL	1-0 HT 1-0	North Sunshine Eagles

Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Melbourne Knights	22	15	2	5	42	17	47
2	Brunswick Juventus	22	15	0	7	44	30	45
3	Northcote City	22	13	4	5	40	24	43
4	Melbourne Victory NPL	21	10	4	7	50	35	34
5	Bulleen Lions	21	9	6	6	37	29	33
6	Eltham Redbacks	22	9	5	8	49	38	32
7	FC Melbourne Srbija	21	10	2	9	26	23	32
8	Manningham United Blues	22	9	3	10	38	46	30
9	North Geelong	21	9	1	11	33	42	28
10	Brunswick City	22	8	3	11	41	44	27
11	Western United FC NPL	22	8	1	13	44	59	25
12	Langwarrin	21	6	5	10	36	46	23
13	North Sunshine Eagles	21	5	4	12	29	37	19
14	Port Melbourne SC	22	3	4	15	12	51	13

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Melbourne Victory NPL	North Sunshine Eagles
North Geelong	2-0 W	0-3 L
Melbourne Knights	1-2 L	1-1 D
Eltham Redbacks	3-3 D	1-1 D
Port Melbourne SC	3-1 W	5-0 W
Manningham United Blues	4-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Melbourne Victory NPL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-0	2-0	4	2	W
10/07	Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-2	3-3	3	4	D
05/07	Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-1	2-3	6	8	L
22/06	Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	4-1	8	5	W
13/06	Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-0	4-2	1	3	W
08/06	Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-0	4-0	8	7	W
01/06	Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
22/05	Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-2	3-3	7	7	D
16/05	Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	3-1	7	2	W
11/05	Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	4-0	7	2	W

North Sunshine Eagles

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
15/07	White City FK Beograd Australia Cup	0-0	3-2	4	5	W
11/07	Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1	3-0	5-0	8	1	W
07/07	Preston Lions Australia Victoria Cup	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
04/07	Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-2	2-2	8	10	D
20/06	Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
13/06	FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	1-2	5	1	L
06/06	Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
02/06	Avondale Australia Cup Qualifying	1-0	3-2	5	4	W
30/05	North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	0-3	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Melbourne Victory NPL vs North Sunshine Eagles?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Melbourne Victory NPL win (57%). Probabilities: Melbourne Victory NPL 57%, draw 20%, North Sunshine Eagles 22%.

How many goals are expected in Melbourne Victory NPL vs North Sunshine Eagles?

The model expects 3.94 goals (Melbourne Victory NPL 2.43 · North Sunshine Eagles 1.51), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Melbourne Victory NPL vs North Sunshine Eagles?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.