Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 25/07, 10:00
Prediction: Brunswick Juventus vs North Geelong
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.83Total
Brunswick Juventus2.38
North Geelong1.45
1X2
Brunswick Juventus
Draw
North Geelong
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Brunswick Juventus
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
North Geelong
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Brunswick Juventus
3–3
North Geelong
(6 last)
- North Geelong3-4Brunswick Juventus
- North Geelong3-2Brunswick Juventus
- Brunswick Juventus2-3North Geelong
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brunswick Juventus 1547 · North Geelong 1476
| Brunswick Juventus | Draw | North Geelong | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| Market | 58% | 20% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.83 goals · Bet365 line 3.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brunswick Juventus (rating 1547 vs 1476).
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Brunswick Juventus | North Geelong | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.8 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.4 | 3.3 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.2 | 3.8 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brunswick Juventus 3–0–3 North Geelong
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | North Geelong | 3-4 HT 2-4 | Brunswick Juventus |
| 24/08/25 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | North Geelong | 3-2 HT 3-0 | Brunswick Juventus |
| 10/05/25 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | Brunswick Juventus | 2-3 HT 1-1 | North Geelong |
| 11/06/22 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | Brunswick Juventus | 1-0 HT 0-0 | North Geelong |
| 26/03/22 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | North Geelong | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Brunswick Juventus |
| 26/06/21 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | North Geelong | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Brunswick Juventus |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Knights | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 37 | 16 | 44 |
| 2 | Brunswick Juventus | 21 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 41 | 30 | 42 |
| 3 | Northcote City | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 37 | 23 | 40 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 50 | 35 | 34 |
| 5 | Bulleen Lions | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 29 | 33 |
| 6 | Eltham Redbacks | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 49 | 36 | 32 |
| 7 | Manningham United Blues | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 37 | 41 | 30 |
| 8 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 20 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 23 | 29 |
| 9 | North Geelong | 20 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 39 | 28 |
| 10 | Western United FC NPL | 21 | 8 | 1 | 12 | 44 | 54 | 25 |
| 11 | Brunswick City | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 36 | 44 | 24 |
| 12 | Langwarrin | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 46 | 23 |
| 13 | North Sunshine Eagles | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 29 | 37 | 19 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne SC | 21 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 48 | 13 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Brunswick Juventus | North Geelong |
|---|---|---|
| Langwarrin | 1-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Western United FC NPL | 5-4 W | 2-3 L |
| Brunswick City | 7-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Melbourne Knights | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Melbourne Victory NPL | 0-4 L | 0-2 L |
| Eltham Redbacks | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Brunswick Juventus (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brunswick Juventus
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 15/07 | Marlin Coast Rangers Australia Cup |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 10/07 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-1 | 5-4 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 03/07 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
3-0 | 7-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 30/06 | Heidelberg Utd Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 19/06 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-5 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 16/06 | Bulleen Lions Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 12/06 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 08/06 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 30/05 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
North Geelong
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 04/07 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 13/06 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-3 | 2-4 | 11 | 8 | L |
| 10/05 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brunswick Juventus vs North Geelong?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Brunswick Juventus win (58%). Probabilities: Brunswick Juventus 58%, draw 20%, North Geelong 22%.
How many goals are expected in Brunswick Juventus vs North Geelong?
The model expects 3.83 goals (Brunswick Juventus 2.38 · North Geelong 1.45), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Brunswick Juventus vs North Geelong?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.