Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 25/07, 06:00
Prediction: Port Melbourne SC vs Northcote City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.07Total
Port Melbourne SC0.66
Northcote City2.41
1X2
Port Melbourne SC
Draw
Northcote City
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Port Melbourne SC
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Northcote City
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Port Melbourne SC
1–4–1
Northcote City
(6 last)
- Northcote City0-0Port Melbourne SC
- Port Melbourne SC2-2Northcote City
- Northcote City1-1Port Melbourne SC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Port Melbourne SC 1424 · Northcote City 1494
| Port Melbourne SC | Draw | Northcote City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 8% | 17% | 75% |
| Market | 9% | 14% | 77% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Northcote City (rating 1424 vs 1494).
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Port Melbourne SC | Northcote City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 2.8 | 1.5 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.5 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.1 | 3.5 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.6 | 3.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Port Melbourne SC 1–4–1 Northcote City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Northcote City | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Port Melbourne SC |
| 04/08/18 Australia Victoria Premier League | Port Melbourne SC | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Northcote City |
| 05/05/18 Australia Victoria Premier League | Northcote City | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Port Melbourne SC |
| 02/05/17 Australia FFA Cup | Port Melbourne SC | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Northcote City |
| 16/07/16 Australia NPL Victoria | Northcote City | 3-1 | Port Melbourne SC |
| 15/04/16 Australia NPL Victoria | Port Melbourne SC | 3-0 | Northcote City |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Knights | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 37 | 16 | 44 |
| 2 | Brunswick Juventus | 21 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 41 | 30 | 42 |
| 3 | Northcote City | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 37 | 23 | 40 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 50 | 35 | 34 |
| 5 | Bulleen Lions | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 29 | 33 |
| 6 | Eltham Redbacks | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 49 | 36 | 32 |
| 7 | Manningham United Blues | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 37 | 41 | 30 |
| 8 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 20 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 23 | 29 |
| 9 | North Geelong | 20 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 39 | 28 |
| 10 | Western United FC NPL | 21 | 8 | 1 | 12 | 44 | 54 | 25 |
| 11 | Brunswick City | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 36 | 44 | 24 |
| 12 | Langwarrin | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 46 | 23 |
| 13 | North Sunshine Eagles | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 29 | 37 | 19 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne SC | 21 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 48 | 13 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Port Melbourne SC | Northcote City |
|---|---|---|
| FC Melbourne Srbija | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| North Sunshine Eagles | 0-5 L | 2-0 W |
| North Geelong | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Langwarrin | 0-5 L | 3-1 W |
| Western United FC NPL | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Brunswick City | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Bulleen Lions | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 4 L | 4 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Northcote City (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Port Melbourne SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 11/07 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-3 | 0-5 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 19/06 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 0-5 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 13/06 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 06/06 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 01/06 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-5 | 0-8 | 3 | 2 | L |
Northcote City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
3-1 | 3-3 | 12 | 1 | D |
| 10/07 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 03/07 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 05/06 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 12/05 | Bentleigh Greens Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Port Melbourne SC vs Northcote City?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Northcote City win (76%). Probabilities: Port Melbourne SC 8%, draw 15%, Northcote City 76%.
How many goals are expected in Port Melbourne SC vs Northcote City?
The model expects 3.07 goals (Port Melbourne SC 0.66 · Northcote City 2.41), with a 60% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Port Melbourne SC vs Northcote City?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.