Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 21/08, 12:30

Prediction: Northcote City vs Brunswick Juventus

Team pages: Northcote City · Brunswick Juventus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Northcote City1.59

Brunswick Juventus1.48

1X2

40% 25% 35%

Northcote City Draw Brunswick Juventus

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Northcote City 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLDWWW

Brunswick Juventus 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWWDLD

Head-to-head

Northcote City 2–4 Brunswick Juventus (6 last)

Brunswick Juventus1-0Northcote City
Northcote City1-2Brunswick Juventus
Brunswick Juventus1-3Northcote City
Northcote City0-2Brunswick Juventus
Brunswick Juventus4-1Northcote City
Northcote City2-1Brunswick Juventus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Northcote City 1535 · Brunswick Juventus 1542

	Northcote City	Draw	Brunswick Juventus
Our model	39%	26%	34%
Market	41%	24%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Brunswick Juventus: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Northcote City	Brunswick Juventus
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	2.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	1.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.2	2.2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.80

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
07:40 +4’	2.20	3.80	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Northcote City 2–0–4 Brunswick Juventus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	Brunswick Juventus	1-0 HT 0-0	Northcote City
02/06/23 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Northcote City	1-2 HT 0-0	Brunswick Juventus
03/03/23 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Brunswick Juventus	1-3 HT 0-2	Northcote City
01/07/22 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Northcote City	0-2 HT 0-1	Brunswick Juventus
15/04/22 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Brunswick Juventus	4-1 HT 4-0	Northcote City
10/07/21 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Northcote City	2-1 HT 0-1	Brunswick Juventus

Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Melbourne Knights	22	15	3	4	41	15	48
2	Northcote City	22	13	4	5	36	22	43
3	Brunswick Juventus	22	13	2	7	37	25	41
4	Melbourne Victory NPL	22	11	4	7	48	32	37
5	Bulleen Lions	22	10	6	6	40	29	36
6	FC Melbourne Srbija	22	10	3	9	25	24	33
7	Eltham Redbacks	22	9	5	8	49	35	32
8	Manningham United Blues	22	9	3	10	32	42	30
9	North Geelong	23	9	1	13	31	48	28
10	Brunswick City	22	8	3	11	40	45	27
11	Langwarrin	22	5	5	12	37	51	20
12	North Sunshine Eagles	23	4	5	14	27	38	17
13	Port Melbourne SC	22	4	4	14	12	49	16

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Northcote City	Brunswick Juventus
FC Melbourne Srbija	2-3 L	1-1 D
North Sunshine Eagles	2-0 W	0-0 D
North Geelong	1-2 L	3-0 W
Langwarrin	3-1 W	1-0 W
Western United FC NPL	2-1 W	5-4 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Northcote City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
31/07	Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
25/07	Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
17/07	Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1	3-1	3-3	12	1	D
10/07	Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
03/07	FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-2	2-3	7	4	L
20/06	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
13/06	North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	1-2	8	3	L
05/06	Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	3-1	5	6	W
31/05	Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	2-1	5	3	W

Brunswick Juventus

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
12/08	Preston Lions Australia Cup	1-3	1-4	5	3	L
01/08	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
25/07	North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-0	3-0	6	1	W
18/07	Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-0	1-0	2	1	W
15/07	Marlin Coast Rangers Australia Cup	2-0	4-0	7	5	W
10/07	Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-1	5-4	8	2	W
03/07	Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1	3-0	7-2	4	2	W
30/06	Heidelberg Utd Australia Cup Qualifying	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
19/06	Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	1-5	9	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Northcote City vs Brunswick Juventus?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Northcote City win (40%). Probabilities: Northcote City 40%, draw 25%, Brunswick Juventus 35%.

How many goals are expected in Northcote City vs Brunswick Juventus?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Northcote City 1.59 · Brunswick Juventus 1.48), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Northcote City vs Brunswick Juventus?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.