Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 30/08, 07:00

Prediction: Brunswick City vs FC Melbourne Srbija

Team pages: Brunswick City · FC Melbourne Srbija

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Brunswick City1.33

FC Melbourne Srbija1.62

1X2

31% 25% 44%

Brunswick City Draw FC Melbourne Srbija

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Brunswick City 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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FC Melbourne Srbija 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Brunswick City 0–1–2 FC Melbourne Srbija (3 last)

FC Melbourne Srbija2-1Brunswick City
FC Melbourne Srbija3-0Brunswick City
Brunswick City1-1FC Melbourne Srbija

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Brunswick City 1500 · FC Melbourne Srbija 1514

	Brunswick City	Draw	FC Melbourne Srbija
Our model	30%	27%	43%
Market	32%	23%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Melbourne Srbija: 2-1-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Brunswick City	FC Melbourne Srbija
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.2	1.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.5	2.3 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.9	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.80

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.80▲	Bet365 2.80
X	3.75 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80
2	2.25 → 2.00▼	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
09:13 +11’	2.50	3.75	2.25
22:38 +10’	2.80▲	3.80▲	2.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Brunswick City 0–1–2 FC Melbourne Srbija

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	FC Melbourne Srbija	2-1 HT 2-1	Brunswick City
24/05/25 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	FC Melbourne Srbija	3-0 HT 3-0	Brunswick City
14/02/25 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	Brunswick City	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Melbourne Srbija

Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Melbourne Knights	23	15	3	5	41	17	48
2	Brunswick Juventus	23	14	2	7	39	26	44
3	Northcote City	23	13	4	6	37	24	43
4	Melbourne Victory NPL	23	12	4	7	51	32	40
5	Bulleen Lions	23	11	6	6	41	29	39
6	Eltham Redbacks	23	10	5	8	51	35	35
7	FC Melbourne Srbija	23	10	3	10	25	25	33
8	Manningham United Blues	23	9	3	11	32	45	30
9	North Geelong	23	9	1	13	31	48	28
10	Brunswick City	23	8	3	12	40	47	27
11	Langwarrin	23	6	5	12	39	51	23
12	North Sunshine Eagles	24	5	5	14	29	38	20
13	Port Melbourne SC	23	4	4	15	12	51	16

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Brunswick City	FC Melbourne Srbija
North Sunshine Eagles	0-2 L	2-1 W
North Geelong	4-0 W	1-0 W
Melbourne Knights	0-2 L	2-0 W
Bulleen Lions	1-1 D	0-1 L
Brunswick Juventus	2-7 L	1-1 D
Melbourne Victory NPL	1-4 L	0-1 L
Eltham Redbacks	3-1 W	2-0 W
Port Melbourne SC	3-1 W	0-1 L
Manningham United Blues	3-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Brunswick City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	0-2	5	1	L
15/08	North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-0	4-0	5	10	W
01/08	Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-2	4-3	1	4	W
17/07	Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
13/07	Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
03/07	Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-3	2-7	2	2	L
22/06	Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	1-4	6	5	L
12/06	Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	3-1	4	7	W
06/06	Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1	3-1	3-1	7	8	W
29/05	Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	3-1	6	0	W

FC Melbourne Srbija

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-1	1-1	2	6	D
08/08	North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
03/08	Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-1	0-1	9	0	L
24/07	Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
18/07	Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-1	0-1	14	7	L
11/07	Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
03/07	Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-0	3-2	8	4	W
20/06	Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
13/06	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	2-1	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Brunswick City vs FC Melbourne Srbija?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Melbourne Srbija win (44%). Probabilities: Brunswick City 31%, draw 25%, FC Melbourne Srbija 44%.

How many goals are expected in Brunswick City vs FC Melbourne Srbija?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Brunswick City 1.33 · FC Melbourne Srbija 1.62), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Brunswick City vs FC Melbourne Srbija?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.