Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 30/08, 07:00
Prediction: Eltham Redbacks vs Melbourne Knights
Team pages: Eltham Redbacks · Melbourne Knights
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.17Total
Eltham Redbacks1.52
Melbourne Knights1.65
1X2
Eltham Redbacks
Draw
Melbourne Knights
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Eltham Redbacks
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Melbourne Knights
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Eltham Redbacks
0–1
Melbourne Knights
(1 last)
- Melbourne Knights4-0Eltham Redbacks
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Eltham Redbacks 1506 · Melbourne Knights 1533
| Eltham Redbacks | Draw | Melbourne Knights | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| Market | 36% | 22% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 13 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Eltham Redbacks | Melbourne Knights | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.3 | 1.5 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.4 | 2.9 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Eltham Redbacks 0–0–1 Melbourne Knights
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Melbourne Knights | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Eltham Redbacks |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Knights | 23 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 41 | 17 | 48 |
| 2 | Brunswick Juventus | 23 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 39 | 26 | 44 |
| 3 | Northcote City | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 37 | 24 | 43 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 51 | 32 | 40 |
| 5 | Bulleen Lions | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 41 | 29 | 39 |
| 6 | Eltham Redbacks | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 51 | 35 | 35 |
| 7 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 25 | 33 |
| 8 | Manningham United Blues | 23 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 32 | 45 | 30 |
| 9 | North Geelong | 23 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 31 | 48 | 28 |
| 10 | Brunswick City | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 40 | 47 | 27 |
| 11 | Langwarrin | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 39 | 51 | 23 |
| 12 | North Sunshine Eagles | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 38 | 20 |
| 13 | Port Melbourne SC | 23 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 51 | 16 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Eltham Redbacks | Melbourne Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Port Melbourne SC | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Manningham United Blues | 5-0 W | 5-1 W |
| Northcote City | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| FC Melbourne Srbija | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| North Sunshine Eagles | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Langwarrin | 6-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Brunswick City | 1-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Bulleen Lions | 2-2 D | 3-1 W |
| Brunswick Juventus | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 4 L | 4 W 2 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Eltham Redbacks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 14/08 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 31/07 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 24/07 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 18/07 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 11/07 | North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 12/06 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 05/06 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 30/05 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
Melbourne Knights
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 25/07 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
5-1 | 5-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 17/07 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 10/07 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 03/07 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 12/06 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 06/06 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 01/06 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Eltham Redbacks vs Melbourne Knights?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Melbourne Knights win (41%). Probabilities: Eltham Redbacks 35%, draw 24%, Melbourne Knights 41%.
How many goals are expected in Eltham Redbacks vs Melbourne Knights?
The model expects 3.17 goals (Eltham Redbacks 1.52 · Melbourne Knights 1.65), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Eltham Redbacks vs Melbourne Knights?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.