Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 30/08, 07:00
Prediction: Melbourne Victory NPL vs Port Melbourne SC
Team pages: Melbourne Victory NPL · Port Melbourne SC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.51Total
Melbourne Victory NPL2.76
Port Melbourne SC0.76
1X2
Melbourne Victory NPL
Draw
Port Melbourne SC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Melbourne Victory NPL
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Port Melbourne SC
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Melbourne Victory NPL
2–1
Port Melbourne SC
(3 last)
- Port Melbourne SC1-3Melbourne Victory NPL
- Melbourne Victory NPL1-2Port Melbourne SC
- Port Melbourne SC0-3Melbourne Victory NPL
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Melbourne Victory NPL 1576 · Port Melbourne SC 1434
| Melbourne Victory NPL | Draw | Port Melbourne SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Market | 80% | 11% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.51 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melbourne Victory NPL (rating 1576 vs 1434).
- H2H favours Melbourne Victory NPL: 2-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Melbourne Victory NPL | Port Melbourne SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5 | 1.3 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.4 | 2.8 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne Victory NPL 2–0–1 Port Melbourne SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Port Melbourne SC | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Melbourne Victory NPL |
| 23/06/25 Australia NPL Victoria | Melbourne Victory NPL | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Port Melbourne SC |
| 14/03/25 Australia NPL Victoria | Port Melbourne SC | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Melbourne Victory NPL |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Knights | 23 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 41 | 17 | 48 |
| 2 | Brunswick Juventus | 23 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 39 | 26 | 44 |
| 3 | Northcote City | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 37 | 24 | 43 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 51 | 32 | 40 |
| 5 | Bulleen Lions | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 41 | 29 | 39 |
| 6 | Eltham Redbacks | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 51 | 35 | 35 |
| 7 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 25 | 33 |
| 8 | Manningham United Blues | 23 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 32 | 45 | 30 |
| 9 | North Geelong | 23 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 31 | 48 | 28 |
| 10 | Brunswick City | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 40 | 47 | 27 |
| 11 | Langwarrin | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 39 | 51 | 23 |
| 12 | North Sunshine Eagles | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 38 | 20 |
| 13 | Port Melbourne SC | 23 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 51 | 16 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Melbourne Victory NPL | Port Melbourne SC |
|---|---|---|
| Manningham United Blues | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Northcote City | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| FC Melbourne Srbija | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| North Sunshine Eagles | 1-0 W | 0-5 L |
| North Geelong | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Langwarrin | 3-3 D | 0-5 L |
| Brunswick City | 4-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Melbourne Knights | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Melbourne Victory NPL (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Melbourne Victory NPL
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 17/08 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 03/08 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 27/07 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 18/07 | North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 10/07 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 22/06 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 13/06 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 4-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 08/06 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 01/06 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
Port Melbourne SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 15/08 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 8 | W |
| 25/07 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 18/07 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 11/07 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-3 | 0-5 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 19/06 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 0-5 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 13/06 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 06/06 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Melbourne Victory NPL vs Port Melbourne SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Melbourne Victory NPL win (79%). Probabilities: Melbourne Victory NPL 79%, draw 13%, Port Melbourne SC 8%.
How many goals are expected in Melbourne Victory NPL vs Port Melbourne SC?
The model expects 3.51 goals (Melbourne Victory NPL 2.76 · Port Melbourne SC 0.76), with a 58% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Melbourne Victory NPL vs Port Melbourne SC?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.