Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 30/08, 07:00

Prediction: Bulleen Lions vs Northcote City

Team pages: Bulleen Lions · Northcote City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Bulleen Lions1.5

Northcote City1.6

1X2

36% 25% 40%

Bulleen Lions Draw Northcote City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Bulleen Lions 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWLDWWWW

Northcote City 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLDWWWL

Head-to-head

Bulleen Lions 1–4–1 Northcote City (6 last)

Northcote City1-1Bulleen Lions
Bulleen Lions2-1Northcote City
Northcote City4-1Bulleen Lions
Northcote City0-0Bulleen Lions
Bulleen Lions1-1Northcote City
Northcote City0-0Bulleen Lions

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bulleen Lions 1549 · Northcote City 1514

	Bulleen Lions	Draw	Northcote City
Our model	35%	26%	39%
Market	36%	24%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bulleen Lions	Northcote City
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.3	1.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 5	3 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.75

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:38 +47’	2.50	3.75	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bulleen Lions 1–4–1 Northcote City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	Northcote City	1-1 HT 0-0	Bulleen Lions
19/07/25 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	Bulleen Lions	2-1	Northcote City
04/04/25 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	Northcote City	4-1 HT 1-1	Bulleen Lions
17/08/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	Northcote City	0-0 HT 0-0	Bulleen Lions
13/05/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	Bulleen Lions	1-1 HT 1-1	Northcote City
23/06/23 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Northcote City	0-0 HT 0-0	Bulleen Lions

Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Melbourne Knights	23	15	3	5	41	17	48
2	Brunswick Juventus	23	14	2	7	39	26	44
3	Northcote City	23	13	4	6	37	24	43
4	Melbourne Victory NPL	23	12	4	7	51	32	40
5	Bulleen Lions	23	11	6	6	41	29	39
6	Eltham Redbacks	23	10	5	8	51	35	35
7	FC Melbourne Srbija	23	10	3	10	25	25	33
8	Manningham United Blues	23	9	3	11	32	45	30
9	North Geelong	23	9	1	13	31	48	28
10	Brunswick City	23	8	3	12	40	47	27
11	Langwarrin	23	6	5	12	39	51	23
12	North Sunshine Eagles	24	5	5	14	29	38	20
13	Port Melbourne SC	23	4	4	15	12	51	16

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bulleen Lions	Northcote City
FC Melbourne Srbija	1-0 W	2-3 L
North Sunshine Eagles	2-1 W	2-0 W
North Geelong	4-0 W	1-2 L
Langwarrin	3-1 W	3-1 W
Melbourne Knights	1-3 L	0-1 L
Brunswick Juventus	5-1 W	1-2 L
Melbourne Victory NPL	2-4 L	1-0 W
Eltham Redbacks	2-2 D	1-0 W
Port Melbourne SC	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Northcote City (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bulleen Lions

WDLWLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
17/08	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	2-1	0	2	W
01/08	North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-0	4-0	0	6	W
27/07	Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-0	3-1	6	4	W
13/07	Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	1-1	8	4	D
03/07	Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
19/06	Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	5-1	0	4	W
13/06	Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-2	2-4	10	3	L
05/06	Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-2	2-2	8	1	D
01/06	Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	1-0	9	3	W

Northcote City

WLWLLDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
17/08	Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
31/07	Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
25/07	Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
17/07	Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1	3-1	3-3	12	1	D
10/07	Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
03/07	FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-2	2-3	7	4	L
20/06	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
13/06	North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	1-2	8	3	L
05/06	Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	3-1	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bulleen Lions vs Northcote City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Northcote City win (40%). Probabilities: Bulleen Lions 36%, draw 25%, Northcote City 40%.

How many goals are expected in Bulleen Lions vs Northcote City?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Bulleen Lions 1.5 · Northcote City 1.6), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Bulleen Lions vs Northcote City?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.