Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 30/08, 07:00
Prediction: Langwarrin vs North Geelong
Team pages: Langwarrin · North Geelong
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.06Total
Langwarrin2.4
North Geelong1.67
1X2
Langwarrin
Draw
North Geelong
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
2-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Langwarrin
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
North Geelong
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Langwarrin
3–2–1
North Geelong
(6 last)
- North Geelong2-4Langwarrin
- North Geelong1-0Langwarrin
- Langwarrin2-1North Geelong
- North Geelong1-1Langwarrin
- Langwarrin2-2North Geelong
- Langwarrin2-1North Geelong
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Langwarrin 1484 · North Geelong 1436
| Langwarrin | Draw | North Geelong | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 21% | 26% |
| Market | 54% | 20% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.06 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Langwarrin (rating 1484 vs 1436).
- H2H favours Langwarrin: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Langwarrin | North Geelong | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 2.1 | 1 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.9 | 2.3 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.2 | 4.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Langwarrin 3–2–1 North Geelong
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | North Geelong | 2-4 HT 2-3 | Langwarrin |
| 01/06/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | North Geelong | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Langwarrin |
| 24/02/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Langwarrin | 2-1 HT 1-1 | North Geelong |
| 18/06/22 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | North Geelong | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Langwarrin |
| 02/04/22 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | Langwarrin | 2-2 HT 2-1 | North Geelong |
| 29/06/19 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | Langwarrin | 2-1 HT 0-0 | North Geelong |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Knights | 23 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 41 | 17 | 48 |
| 2 | Brunswick Juventus | 23 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 39 | 26 | 44 |
| 3 | Northcote City | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 37 | 24 | 43 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 51 | 32 | 40 |
| 5 | Bulleen Lions | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 41 | 29 | 39 |
| 6 | Eltham Redbacks | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 51 | 35 | 35 |
| 7 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 25 | 33 |
| 8 | Manningham United Blues | 23 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 32 | 45 | 30 |
| 9 | North Geelong | 23 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 31 | 48 | 28 |
| 10 | Brunswick City | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 40 | 47 | 27 |
| 11 | Langwarrin | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 39 | 51 | 23 |
| 12 | North Sunshine Eagles | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 38 | 20 |
| 13 | Port Melbourne SC | 23 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 51 | 16 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Langwarrin | North Geelong |
|---|---|---|
| Brunswick City | 3-4 L | 0-4 L |
| Bulleen Lions | 1-3 L | 0-4 L |
| Brunswick Juventus | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Melbourne Victory NPL | 3-3 D | 0-2 L |
| Eltham Redbacks | 1-6 L | 1-3 L |
| Port Melbourne SC | 5-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Manningham United Blues | 4-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Northcote City | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| FC Melbourne Srbija | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 5 L | 2 W 1 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Langwarrin (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Langwarrin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 27/07 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 10/07 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-2 | 3-3 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-2 | 1-6 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 19/06 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 13/06 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 05/06 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 30/05 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | D |
North Geelong
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 10 | L |
| 08/08 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 01/08 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 18/07 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 04/07 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 20/06 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 13/06 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Langwarrin vs North Geelong?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Langwarrin win (54%). Probabilities: Langwarrin 54%, draw 20%, North Geelong 26%.
How many goals are expected in Langwarrin vs North Geelong?
The model expects 4.06 goals (Langwarrin 2.4 · North Geelong 1.67), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Langwarrin vs North Geelong?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.