Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 22/08, 06:00
Prediction: Port Melbourne SC vs Eltham Redbacks
Team pages: Port Melbourne SC · Eltham Redbacks
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.65Total
Port Melbourne SC1.22
Eltham Redbacks2.43
1X2
Port Melbourne SC
Draw
Eltham Redbacks
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-2
Recent form · 10 last
Port Melbourne SC
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Eltham Redbacks
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Port Melbourne SC
0–1
Eltham Redbacks
(1 last)
- Eltham Redbacks8-0Port Melbourne SC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Port Melbourne SC 1449 · Eltham Redbacks 1499
| Port Melbourne SC | Draw | Eltham Redbacks | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 17% | 20% | 63% |
| Market | 18% | 18% | 64% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Eltham Redbacks (rating 1449 vs 1499).
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Port Melbourne SC | Eltham Redbacks | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.9 | 2.2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 2.9 | 2.8 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.8 | 2.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Port Melbourne SC 0–0–1 Eltham Redbacks
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Eltham Redbacks | 8-0 HT 5-0 | Port Melbourne SC |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Knights | 22 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 41 | 15 | 48 |
| 2 | Northcote City | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 36 | 22 | 43 |
| 3 | Brunswick Juventus | 22 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 37 | 25 | 41 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 48 | 32 | 37 |
| 5 | Bulleen Lions | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 40 | 29 | 36 |
| 6 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 24 | 33 |
| 7 | Eltham Redbacks | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 49 | 35 | 32 |
| 8 | Manningham United Blues | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 32 | 42 | 30 |
| 9 | North Geelong | 23 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 31 | 48 | 28 |
| 10 | Brunswick City | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 40 | 45 | 27 |
| 11 | Langwarrin | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 37 | 51 | 20 |
| 12 | North Sunshine Eagles | 23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 27 | 38 | 17 |
| 13 | Port Melbourne SC | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 49 | 16 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Port Melbourne SC | Eltham Redbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Manningham United Blues | 1-0 W | 5-0 W |
| Northcote City | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| FC Melbourne Srbija | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| North Sunshine Eagles | 0-5 L | 1-1 D |
| North Geelong | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Langwarrin | 0-5 L | 6-1 W |
| Western United FC NPL | 0-0 D | 3-4 L |
| Brunswick City | 1-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Bulleen Lions | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 5 L | 3 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Eltham Redbacks (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Port Melbourne SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 8 | W |
| 25/07 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 18/07 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 11/07 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-3 | 0-5 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 19/06 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 0-5 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 13/06 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 06/06 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 01/06 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
Eltham Redbacks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 31/07 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 24/07 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 18/07 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 11/07 | North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 19/06 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 12/06 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 05/06 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 30/05 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Port Melbourne SC vs Eltham Redbacks?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Eltham Redbacks win (64%). Probabilities: Port Melbourne SC 18%, draw 19%, Eltham Redbacks 64%.
How many goals are expected in Port Melbourne SC vs Eltham Redbacks?
The model expects 3.65 goals (Port Melbourne SC 1.22 · Eltham Redbacks 2.43), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Port Melbourne SC vs Eltham Redbacks?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.