Prediction: Langwarrin vs Eltham Redbacks
Expected goals: 4.18 (Langwarrin 2.04 · Eltham Redbacks 2.15). The model gives 37% home, 22% draw, 41% away. Over 3.75 goals (51%) and both teams to score (63%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Langwarrin sits at 5-2-3 (W-D-L), while Eltham Redbacks arrives on a 2-2-6 run. In their only recent head-to-head meeting, Langwarrin won 0 and Eltham Redbacks 1.
| Langwarrin | Draw | Eltham Redbacks | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 22% | 41% |
| Market | 37% | 22% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Langwarrin (rating 1518 vs 1468).
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Langwarrin | Eltham Redbacks | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.7 | 2.5 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 1.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5 | 3.1 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.3 | 3.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Langwarrin 0–0–1 Eltham Redbacks
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Eltham Redbacks | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Langwarrin |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northcote City | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 16 | 39 |
| 2 | Melbourne Knights | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 15 | 35 |
| 3 | Brunswick Juventus | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 24 | 33 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 43 | 29 | 30 |
| 5 | Bulleen Lions | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 23 | 29 |
| 6 | North Geelong | 17 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 33 | 27 |
| 7 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 26 |
| 8 | Eltham Redbacks | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 33 | 25 |
| 9 | Manningham United Blues | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 36 | 25 |
| 10 | Brunswick City | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 34 | 23 |
| 11 | Langwarrin | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 36 | 22 |
| 12 | Western United FC NPL | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 43 | 22 |
| 13 | North Sunshine Eagles | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 21 | 34 | 14 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne SC | 18 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 42 | 9 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Langwarrin | Eltham Redbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Port Melbourne SC | 5-0 W | 8-0 W |
| Manningham United Blues | 4-1 W | 1-2 L |
| North Sunshine Eagles | 1-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Melbourne Knights | 1-4 L | 0-4 L |
| Western United FC NPL | 3-2 W | 3-4 L |
| Brunswick City | 1-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Bulleen Lions | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Langwarrin (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Langwarrin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 13/06 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 05/06 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 30/05 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
3-2 | 4-2 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
3-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 24/04 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 17/04 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
Eltham Redbacks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 12/06 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 05/06 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 30/05 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 3-3 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 15/05 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 12/05 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-2 | 2-4 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
5-0 | 8-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 28/04 | Essendon Royals Australia Cup Qualifying |
3-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Langwarrin vs Eltham Redbacks?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Eltham Redbacks win (41%). Probabilities: Langwarrin 37%, draw 22%, Eltham Redbacks 41%.
How many goals are expected in Langwarrin vs Eltham Redbacks?
The model expects 4.18 goals (Langwarrin 2.04 · Eltham Redbacks 2.15), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Langwarrin vs Eltham Redbacks?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.