Football · Iceland Premier League · 16/08, 21:15
Prediction: Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri
Team pages: Valur Reykjavik · KA Akureyri
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.46Total
Valur Reykjavik1.91
KA Akureyri1.55
1X2
Valur Reykjavik
Draw
KA Akureyri
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Valur Reykjavik
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
KA Akureyri
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Valur Reykjavik
4–2
KA Akureyri
(6 last)
- KA Akureyri0-1Valur Reykjavik
- KA Akureyri2-5Valur Reykjavik
- Valur Reykjavik3-1KA Akureyri
- KA Akureyri1-0Valur Reykjavik
- KA Akureyri3-2Valur Reykjavik
- Valur Reykjavik3-1KA Akureyri
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valur Reykjavik 1476 · KA Akureyri 1421
| Valur Reykjavik | Draw | KA Akureyri | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Market | 46% | 23% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valur Reykjavik (rating 1476 vs 1421).
- H2H favours Valur Reykjavik: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Valur Reykjavik | KA Akureyri | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.7 | 1.5 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.5 | 2.6 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 5.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Valur Reykjavik 4–0–2 KA Akureyri
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/26 Iceland Premier League | KA Akureyri | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Valur Reykjavik |
| 27/06/25 Iceland Premier League | KA Akureyri | 2-5 HT 1-2 | Valur Reykjavik |
| 23/04/25 Iceland Premier League | Valur Reykjavik | 3-1 HT 2-0 | KA Akureyri |
| 06/08/24 Iceland Premier League | KA Akureyri | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Valur Reykjavik |
| 02/07/24 Iceland Cup | KA Akureyri | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Valur Reykjavik |
| 11/05/24 Iceland Premier League | Valur Reykjavik | 3-1 HT 1-1 | KA Akureyri |
Standings · Iceland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 58 | 16 | 45 |
| 2 | KR Reykjavik | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 64 | 39 | 39 |
| 3 | Fram Reykjavik | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 45 | 34 | 37 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 30 | 29 |
| 5 | Valur Reykjavik | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 36 | 22 |
| 6 | IA Akranes | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 30 | 36 | 22 |
| 7 | Keflavik | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 34 | 22 |
| 8 | Stjarnan | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 33 | 43 | 21 |
| 9 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 38 | 17 |
| 10 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 22 | 32 | 17 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 36 | 15 |
| 12 | Thor Akureyri | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 18 | 44 | 15 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Valur Reykjavik | KA Akureyri |
|---|---|---|
| Breidablik | 3-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Stjarnan | 2-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Fram Reykjavik | 2-3 L | 3-4 L |
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Thor Akureyri | 4-2 W | 0-0 D |
| Keflavik | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 4 L | 0 W 2 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Valur Reykjavik (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valur Reykjavik
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 06/08 | FC Nordsjaelland UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 03/08 | Stjarnan Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 30/07 | Zrinjski Mostar UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
2-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 23/07 | Zrinjski Mostar UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-3 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 04/07 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 28/06 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 4-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 2 | D |
KA Akureyri
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 05/08 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 27/07 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 19/07 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 12/07 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/07 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 28/06 | Stjarnan Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 21/06 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 15/06 | Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
2-3 | 3-4 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 31/05 | KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-3 | 3-5 | 8 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Valur Reykjavik win (46%). Probabilities: Valur Reykjavik 46%, draw 24%, KA Akureyri 31%.
How many goals are expected in Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri?
The model expects 3.46 goals (Valur Reykjavik 1.91 · KA Akureyri 1.55), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.