Prediction: North Texas SC vs St Louis City II
Expected goals: 3.22 (North Texas SC 1.58 · St Louis City II 1.64). The model gives 36% home, 25% draw, 39% away. Over 3 goals (52%) and both teams to score (58%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves North Texas SC with 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses over 10 games; St Louis City II has piled up 3-3-4 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, North Texas SC won 0 and St Louis City II 5, with 1 draw.
| North Texas SC | Draw | St Louis City II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 25% | 38% |
| Market | 37% | 24% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours St Louis City II: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| North Texas SC | St Louis City II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.6 | 3.7 / 8.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 2.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · North Texas SC 0–1–5 St Louis City II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 2-0 HT 0-0 | North Texas SC |
| 17/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | North Texas SC | 1-3 HT 0-1 | St Louis City II |
| 05/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 2-0 HT 2-0 | North Texas SC |
| 10/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | North Texas SC | 0-3 HT 0-3 | St Louis City II |
| 03/11/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | North Texas SC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | St Louis City II |
| 26/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 4-0 HT 2-0 | North Texas SC |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 11 | 37 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo II | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 13 | 31 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers II | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 22 | 29 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 24 | 29 |
| 5 | St Louis City II | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 25 | 29 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC II | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 26 | 27 |
| 7 | Minnesota United FC II | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 25 | 26 |
| 8 | The Town | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 17 | 25 |
| 9 | Real Monarchs SLC | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 28 | 21 |
| 10 | Tacoma Defiance | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 22 | 21 |
| 11 | North Texas SC | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 20 | 19 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 36 | 14 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 44 | 13 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 32 | 9 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | North Texas SC | St Louis City II |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC II | 2-0 W | 2-5 L |
| Austin FC II | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: North Texas SC (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
North Texas SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 30/05 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 17/05 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 5-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 11/04 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 05/04 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
St Louis City II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 18/05 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 15 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in North Texas SC vs St Louis City II?
According to our model, the most likely result is an St Louis City II win (39%). Probabilities: North Texas SC 36%, draw 25%, St Louis City II 39%.
How many goals are expected in North Texas SC vs St Louis City II?
The model expects 3.22 goals (North Texas SC 1.58 · St Louis City II 1.64), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in North Texas SC vs St Louis City II?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.