Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 13/07, 02:30
Prediction: Austin FC II vs Minnesota United FC II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.1Total
Austin FC II1.97
Minnesota United FC II1.13
1X2
Austin FC II
Draw
Minnesota United FC II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Austin FC II
10-0-0 (W-D-L)
Minnesota United FC II
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Austin FC II
1–1–4
Minnesota United FC II
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Austin FC II 1606 · Minnesota United FC II 1487
| Austin FC II | Draw | Minnesota United FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Market | 57% | 21% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.1 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Austin FC II (rating 1606 vs 1487).
- H2H favours Minnesota United FC II: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Austin FC II | Minnesota United FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 0.5 | 1.2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.1 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/30/0% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 2.5 | 2 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Austin FC II 1–1–4 Minnesota United FC II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Minnesota United FC II | 1-3 HT 1-3 | Austin FC II |
| 02/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Austin FC II | 2-4 HT 0-3 | Minnesota United FC II |
| 05/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Minnesota United FC II | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Austin FC II |
| 24/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Austin FC II | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Minnesota United FC II |
| 14/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Austin FC II | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Minnesota United FC II |
| 08/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Minnesota United FC II | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Austin FC II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 34 | 13 | 40 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo II | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 13 | 34 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers II | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 22 | 32 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 27 | 29 |
| 5 | St Louis City II | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 28 | 29 |
| 6 | The Town | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 37 | 18 | 28 |
| 7 | Los Angeles FC II | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| 8 | Minnesota United FC II | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 26 |
| 9 | Real Monarchs SLC | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 27 | 30 | 23 |
| 10 | North Texas SC | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 20 | 22 |
| 11 | Tacoma Defiance | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 21 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 38 | 17 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 50 | 13 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 17 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 35 | 9 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Austin FC II | Minnesota United FC II |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids II | 3-2 W | 2-0 W |
| St Louis City II | 2-0 W | 5-2 W |
| Los Angeles FC II | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Tacoma Defiance | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| North Texas SC | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Austin FC II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Austin FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 29/06 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 22/06 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-1 | 3-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 08/06 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 18/05 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 14/05 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
Minnesota United FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 29/06 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 25/06 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 5-2 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-3 | 1-3 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 14/05 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Austin FC II vs Minnesota United FC II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Austin FC II win (57%). Probabilities: Austin FC II 57%, draw 22%, Minnesota United FC II 21%.
How many goals are expected in Austin FC II vs Minnesota United FC II?
The model expects 3.1 goals (Austin FC II 1.97 · Minnesota United FC II 1.13), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Austin FC II vs Minnesota United FC II?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.