Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 13/07, 02:00
Prediction: The Town vs Tacoma Defiance
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.96Total
The Town1.87
Tacoma Defiance1.08
1X2
The Town
Draw
Tacoma Defiance
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
The Town
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Tacoma Defiance
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
The Town
1–3–2
Tacoma Defiance
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · The Town 1526 · Tacoma Defiance 1526
| The Town | Draw | Tacoma Defiance | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 25% | 21% |
| Market | 56% | 22% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Tacoma Defiance: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| The Town | Tacoma Defiance | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.2 | 2.6 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · The Town 1–3–2 Tacoma Defiance
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 0-0 HT 0-0 | The Town |
| 29/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | The Town | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 04/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 4-4 HT 2-1 | The Town |
| 15/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 3-1 HT 2-0 | The Town |
| 26/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | The Town | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 12/06/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | The Town | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Tacoma Defiance |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 34 | 13 | 40 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo II | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 13 | 34 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers II | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 22 | 32 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 27 | 29 |
| 5 | St Louis City II | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 28 | 29 |
| 6 | The Town | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 37 | 18 | 28 |
| 7 | Los Angeles FC II | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| 8 | Minnesota United FC II | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 26 |
| 9 | Real Monarchs SLC | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 27 | 30 | 23 |
| 10 | North Texas SC | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 20 | 22 |
| 11 | Tacoma Defiance | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 21 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 38 | 17 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 50 | 13 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 17 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 35 | 9 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | The Town | Tacoma Defiance |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City II | 6-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Portland Timbers II | 3-2 W | 0-2 L |
| Vancouver Whitecaps II | 2-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Real Monarchs SLC | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Ventura County FC | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Los Angeles FC II | 1-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 4 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: The Town (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
The Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-1 | 6-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 18/06 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 08/06 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 18/05 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 14/05 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 09/05 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 6-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 19/04 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
Tacoma Defiance
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 29/06 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 22/06 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 18/06 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 18/05 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 04/05 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 27/04 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in The Town vs Tacoma Defiance?
According to our model, the most likely result is a The Town win (56%). Probabilities: The Town 56%, draw 23%, Tacoma Defiance 21%.
How many goals are expected in The Town vs Tacoma Defiance?
The model expects 2.96 goals (The Town 1.87 · Tacoma Defiance 1.08), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in The Town vs Tacoma Defiance?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.