Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 13/07, 00:00
Prediction: CT United vs Toronto FC II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.51Total
CT United2.24
Toronto FC II1.27
1X2
CT United
Draw
Toronto FC II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
CT United
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Toronto FC II
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CT United
1–1
Toronto FC II
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CT United 1505 · Toronto FC II 1461
| CT United | Draw | Toronto FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 22% | 20% |
| Market | 59% | 21% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CT United (rating 1505 vs 1461).
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CT United | Toronto FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.4 | 1.8 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.2 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CT United 1–0–1 Toronto FC II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 2-4 HT 1-2 | CT United |
| 17/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | CT United | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Toronto FC II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Crew II | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 27 | 34 |
| 2 | Crown Legacy | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 41 | 22 | 34 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls II | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 39 | 24 | 32 |
| 4 | Chattanooga FC | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 28 | 31 |
| 5 | New England Revolution II | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 18 | 31 |
| 6 | Orlando City II | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 37 | 31 | 30 |
| 7 | Atlanta United II | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 25 | 27 |
| 8 | New York City FC II | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 23 | 25 |
| 9 | Philadelphia Union II | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 21 | 24 |
| 10 | Chicago Fire II | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| 11 | CT United | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 29 | 22 |
| 12 | Toronto FC II | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 32 | 22 |
| 13 | Huntsville City | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 35 | 21 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 31 | 17 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 16 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 15 | 29 | 14 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 37 | 5 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CT United | Toronto FC II |
|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati II | 4-0 W | 0-5 L |
| Columbus Crew II | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Huntsville City | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| New York Red Bulls II | 3-1 W | 0-5 L |
| New England Revolution II | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| Philadelphia Union II | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CT United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 1-4 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 19/06 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 08/06 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 25/05 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 04/05 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
Toronto FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 22/06 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 06/06 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 25/05 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 08/05 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 04/05 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-5 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CT United vs Toronto FC II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CT United win (59%). Probabilities: CT United 59%, draw 21%, Toronto FC II 20%.
How many goals are expected in CT United vs Toronto FC II?
The model expects 3.51 goals (CT United 2.24 · Toronto FC II 1.27), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in CT United vs Toronto FC II?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.