Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 12/07, 22:00
Prediction: Chicago Fire II vs New York Red Bulls II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.21Total
Chicago Fire II2.1
New York Red Bulls II2.1
1X2
Chicago Fire II
Draw
New York Red Bulls II
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 63%
Most likely score
2-2
Recent form · 10 last
Chicago Fire II
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
New York Red Bulls II
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chicago Fire II
2–1–3
New York Red Bulls II
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chicago Fire II 1512 · New York Red Bulls II 1502
| Chicago Fire II | Draw | New York Red Bulls II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 21% | 39% |
| Market | 38% | 24% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.21 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours New York Red Bulls II: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chicago Fire II | New York Red Bulls II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.7 | 2.1 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.8 | 1.6 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.1 | 4.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chicago Fire II 2–1–3 New York Red Bulls II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 3-3 HT 3-2 | Chicago Fire II |
| 25/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Chicago Fire II |
| 27/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chicago Fire II | 9-2 HT 5-1 | New York Red Bulls II |
| 06/04/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Chicago Fire II |
| 14/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chicago Fire II | 2-1 HT 2-0 | New York Red Bulls II |
| 05/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 4-3 HT 2-2 | Chicago Fire II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Crew II | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 27 | 34 |
| 2 | Crown Legacy | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 41 | 22 | 34 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls II | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 39 | 24 | 32 |
| 4 | Chattanooga FC | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 28 | 31 |
| 5 | New England Revolution II | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 18 | 31 |
| 6 | Orlando City II | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 37 | 31 | 30 |
| 7 | Atlanta United II | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 25 | 27 |
| 8 | New York City FC II | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 23 | 25 |
| 9 | Philadelphia Union II | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 21 | 24 |
| 10 | Chicago Fire II | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| 11 | CT United | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 29 | 22 |
| 12 | Toronto FC II | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 32 | 22 |
| 13 | Huntsville City | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 35 | 21 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 31 | 17 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 16 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 15 | 29 | 14 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 37 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chicago Fire II | New York Red Bulls II |
|---|---|---|
| Chattanooga FC | 2-2 D | 0-4 L |
| New England Revolution II | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Carolina Core FC | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| New York City FC II | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Chicago Fire II (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chicago Fire II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 28/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 21/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 14 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 06/05 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
New York Red Bulls II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 29/06 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 22/06 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 07/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 25/05 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 18/05 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 03/05 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chicago Fire II vs New York Red Bulls II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chicago Fire II win (39%). Probabilities: Chicago Fire II 39%, draw 23%, New York Red Bulls II 39%.
How many goals are expected in Chicago Fire II vs New York Red Bulls II?
The model expects 4.21 goals (Chicago Fire II 2.1 · New York Red Bulls II 2.1), with a 55% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Chicago Fire II vs New York Red Bulls II?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.