Prediction: Houston Dynamo II vs Minnesota United FC II
Expected goals: 3.11 (Houston Dynamo II 1.73 · Minnesota United FC II 1.38). The model gives 45% home, 25% draw, 30% away. Over 3 goals (50%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Houston Dynamo II is 5-2-3 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Minnesota United FC II 3-3-4 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Houston Dynamo II won 2 and Minnesota United FC II 2, with 2 draws.
| Houston Dynamo II | Draw | Minnesota United FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 26% | 30% |
| Market | 45% | 25% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Houston Dynamo II (rating 1541 vs 1483).
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Houston Dynamo II | Minnesota United FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 4.6 | 2.8 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.3 | 3.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Houston Dynamo II 2–2–2 Minnesota United FC II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Minnesota United FC II | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Houston Dynamo II |
| 03/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Minnesota United FC II | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Houston Dynamo II |
| 13/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Minnesota United FC II | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Houston Dynamo II |
| 31/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Houston Dynamo II | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Minnesota United FC II |
| 26/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Houston Dynamo II | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Minnesota United FC II |
| 22/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Houston Dynamo II | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Minnesota United FC II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 11 | 37 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo II | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 13 | 31 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers II | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 22 | 29 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 24 | 29 |
| 5 | St Louis City II | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 25 | 29 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC II | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 26 | 27 |
| 7 | Minnesota United FC II | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 25 | 26 |
| 8 | The Town | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 17 | 25 |
| 9 | Real Monarchs SLC | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 28 | 21 |
| 10 | Tacoma Defiance | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 22 | 21 |
| 11 | North Texas SC | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 20 | 19 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 36 | 14 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 44 | 13 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 32 | 9 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Houston Dynamo II | Minnesota United FC II |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles FC II | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Tacoma Defiance | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Portland Timbers II | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| St Louis City II | 4-1 W | 5-2 W |
| Colorado Rapids II | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Austin FC II | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Houston Dynamo II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 11 | L |
| 18/06 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 04/05 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 19/04 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 13/04 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
Minnesota United FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 25/06 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 5-2 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-3 | 1-3 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 14/05 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Houston Dynamo II vs Minnesota United FC II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Houston Dynamo II win (45%). Probabilities: Houston Dynamo II 45%, draw 25%, Minnesota United FC II 30%.
How many goals are expected in Houston Dynamo II vs Minnesota United FC II?
The model expects 3.11 goals (Houston Dynamo II 1.73 · Minnesota United FC II 1.38), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Houston Dynamo II vs Minnesota United FC II?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.