Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 01/08, 02:00
Prediction: Sporting Kansas City II vs Houston Dynamo II
Team pages: Sporting Kansas City II · Houston Dynamo II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.64Total
Sporting Kansas City II1.48
Houston Dynamo II2.16
1X2
Sporting Kansas City II
Draw
Houston Dynamo II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sporting Kansas City II
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Houston Dynamo II
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sporting Kansas City II
1–2–3
Houston Dynamo II
(6 last)
- Sporting Kansas City II1-2Houston Dynamo II
- Sporting Kansas City II1-3Houston Dynamo II
- Houston Dynamo II1-1Sporting Kansas City II
- Houston Dynamo II3-1Sporting Kansas City II
- Sporting Kansas City II2-2Houston Dynamo II
- Sporting Kansas City II4-0Houston Dynamo II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sporting Kansas City II 1454 · Houston Dynamo II 1553
| Sporting Kansas City II | Draw | Houston Dynamo II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 22% | 52% |
| Market | 25% | 23% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Houston Dynamo II (rating 1454 vs 1553).
- H2H favours Houston Dynamo II: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sporting Kansas City II | Houston Dynamo II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2.4 | 2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.3 | 1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 5.7 | 2.6 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Kansas City II 1–2–3 Houston Dynamo II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Sporting Kansas City II | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Houston Dynamo II |
| 17/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Sporting Kansas City II | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Houston Dynamo II |
| 08/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Houston Dynamo II | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Sporting Kansas City II |
| 09/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Houston Dynamo II | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Sporting Kansas City II |
| 08/06/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Sporting Kansas City II | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Houston Dynamo II |
| 15/04/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Sporting Kansas City II | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Houston Dynamo II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 41 | 17 | 44 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo II | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 16 | 42 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers II | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 23 | 40 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 37 | 27 | 35 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC II | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 30 | 32 | 31 |
| 6 | Tacoma Defiance | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 27 | 30 |
| 7 | St Louis City II | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 33 | 30 |
| 8 | Minnesota United FC II | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 32 | 29 |
| 9 | The Town | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 37 | 23 | 28 |
| 10 | North Texas SC | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 23 | 26 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs SLC | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 36 | 26 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 26 | 45 | 19 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 24 | 50 | 16 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 20 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 39 | 12 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sporting Kansas City II | Houston Dynamo II |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC II | 1-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Austin FC II | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Colorado Rapids II | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Ventura County FC | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Tacoma Defiance | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sporting Kansas City II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 08/07 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-3 | 1-6 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 22/06 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 17/05 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 1-5 | 12 | 4 | L |
| 11/05 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 07/05 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 04/05 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
Houston Dynamo II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 19/07 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 12/07 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 05/07 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 29/06 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 11 | L |
| 18/06 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sporting Kansas City II vs Houston Dynamo II?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Houston Dynamo II win (52%). Probabilities: Sporting Kansas City II 25%, draw 23%, Houston Dynamo II 52%.
How many goals are expected in Sporting Kansas City II vs Houston Dynamo II?
The model expects 3.64 goals (Sporting Kansas City II 1.48 · Houston Dynamo II 2.16), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sporting Kansas City II vs Houston Dynamo II?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.