Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 10/08, 21:00
Prediction: Chicago Fire II vs Toronto FC II
Team pages: Chicago Fire II · Toronto FC II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.17Total
Chicago Fire II2.29
Toronto FC II1.89
1X2
Chicago Fire II
Draw
Toronto FC II
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 63%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Chicago Fire II
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Toronto FC II
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chicago Fire II
4–2
Toronto FC II
(6 last)
- Toronto FC II2-3Chicago Fire II
- Toronto FC II2-0Chicago Fire II
- Chicago Fire II1-0Toronto FC II
- Chicago Fire II2-0Toronto FC II
- Toronto FC II1-4Chicago Fire II
- Toronto FC II3-2Chicago Fire II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chicago Fire II 1557 · Toronto FC II 1454
| Chicago Fire II | Draw | Toronto FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 21% | 32% |
| Market | 46% | 23% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chicago Fire II (rating 1557 vs 1454).
- H2H favours Chicago Fire II: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chicago Fire II | Toronto FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 1.5 | 1.5 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.7 / 0.6 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.6 | 1.8 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chicago Fire II 4–0–2 Toronto FC II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Chicago Fire II |
| 26/04/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Chicago Fire II |
| 14/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chicago Fire II | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 10/07/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chicago Fire II | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 01/06/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Chicago Fire II |
| 22/05/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 3-2 HT 0-1 | Chicago Fire II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 52 | 28 | 46 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 30 | 43 |
| 3 | New England Revolution II | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 24 | 42 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew II | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 37 | 33 | 39 |
| 5 | New York Red Bulls II | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 43 | 37 | 35 |
| 6 | Orlando City II | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 42 | 38 | 35 |
| 7 | Atlanta United II | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 44 | 34 | 34 |
| 8 | CT United | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 40 | 37 | 34 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire II | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 41 | 30 | 33 |
| 10 | New York City FC II | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 29 | 30 |
| 12 | Huntsville City | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 33 | 40 | 28 |
| 13 | Carolina Core FC | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 40 | 26 |
| 14 | Toronto FC II | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 38 | 25 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 21 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 22 | 45 | 16 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 20 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 16 | 49 | 8 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chicago Fire II | Toronto FC II |
|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati II | 7-2 W | 3-1 W |
| New York Red Bulls II | 3-0 W | 0-5 L |
| Huntsville City | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| New England Revolution II | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Inter Miami CF II | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Atlanta United II | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Chicago Fire II (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chicago Fire II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
4-2 | 7-2 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 26/07 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 18/07 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 12/07 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 06/07 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 28/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 21/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Toronto FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 18/07 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 13/07 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 05/07 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 22/06 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 06/06 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 25/05 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chicago Fire II vs Toronto FC II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chicago Fire II win (46%). Probabilities: Chicago Fire II 46%, draw 22%, Toronto FC II 31%.
How many goals are expected in Chicago Fire II vs Toronto FC II?
The model expects 4.17 goals (Chicago Fire II 2.29 · Toronto FC II 1.89), with a 56% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Chicago Fire II vs Toronto FC II?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.