Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 10/08, 02:30
Prediction: Austin FC II vs Sporting Kansas City II
Team pages: Austin FC II · Sporting Kansas City II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.74Total
Austin FC II2.54
Sporting Kansas City II1.2
1X2
Austin FC II
Draw
Sporting Kansas City II
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Austin FC II
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Sporting Kansas City II
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Austin FC II
5–1–0
Sporting Kansas City II
(6 last)
- Austin FC II2-1Sporting Kansas City II
- Sporting Kansas City II0-3Austin FC II
- Sporting Kansas City II1-3Austin FC II
- Austin FC II1-0Sporting Kansas City II
- Austin FC II0-0Sporting Kansas City II
- Sporting Kansas City II0-2Austin FC II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Austin FC II 1574 · Sporting Kansas City II 1489
| Austin FC II | Draw | Sporting Kansas City II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 19% | 16% |
| Market | 66% | 19% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Austin FC II (rating 1574 vs 1489).
- H2H favours Austin FC II: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Austin FC II | Sporting Kansas City II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 0.9 | 1.5 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/10/10% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 2.7 | 1.9 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0 | 3.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Austin FC II 5–1–0 Sporting Kansas City II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Austin FC II | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Sporting Kansas City II |
| 23/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Sporting Kansas City II | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Austin FC II |
| 03/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Sporting Kansas City II | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Austin FC II |
| 28/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Austin FC II | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sporting Kansas City II |
| 03/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Austin FC II | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sporting Kansas City II |
| 19/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Sporting Kansas City II | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Austin FC II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 42 | 18 | 46 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 24 | 43 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo II | 19 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 42 | 19 | 42 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 28 | 38 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC II | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 33 | 32 | 34 |
| 6 | Tacoma Defiance | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 29 | 29 | 33 |
| 7 | St Louis City II | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 33 |
| 8 | The Town | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 38 | 24 | 29 |
| 9 | Minnesota United FC II | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 34 | 29 |
| 10 | North Texas SC | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 30 | 29 | 26 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs SLC | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 39 | 26 |
| 12 | Sporting Kansas City II | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 52 | 19 |
| 13 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 28 | 49 | 19 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 21 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 42 | 12 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Austin FC II | Sporting Kansas City II |
|---|---|---|
| The Town | 1-1 D | 1-6 L |
| Houston Dynamo II | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Minnesota United FC II | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Colorado Rapids II | 3-2 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 1 L | 3 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Sporting Kansas City II (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Austin FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 27/07 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 23/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 13/07 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 06/07 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 29/06 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 22/06 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-1 | 3-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 08/06 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
Sporting Kansas City II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 20/07 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 08/07 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-3 | 1-6 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 22/06 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 17/05 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 1-5 | 12 | 4 | L |
| 11/05 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 07/05 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 04/05 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Austin FC II vs Sporting Kansas City II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Austin FC II win (66%). Probabilities: Austin FC II 66%, draw 19%, Sporting Kansas City II 16%.
How many goals are expected in Austin FC II vs Sporting Kansas City II?
The model expects 3.74 goals (Austin FC II 2.54 · Sporting Kansas City II 1.2), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Austin FC II vs Sporting Kansas City II?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.