Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 09/08, 02:45
Prediction: North Texas SC vs Tacoma Defiance
Team pages: North Texas SC · Tacoma Defiance
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.14Total
North Texas SC1.67
Tacoma Defiance1.47
1X2
North Texas SC
Draw
Tacoma Defiance
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
North Texas SC
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Tacoma Defiance
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
North Texas SC
3–2–1
Tacoma Defiance
(6 last)
- Tacoma Defiance2-3North Texas SC
- North Texas SC4-1Tacoma Defiance
- North Texas SC2-1Tacoma Defiance
- North Texas SC2-2Tacoma Defiance
- Tacoma Defiance3-0North Texas SC
- North Texas SC1-1Tacoma Defiance
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · North Texas SC 1512 · Tacoma Defiance 1555
| North Texas SC | Draw | Tacoma Defiance | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Market | 42% | 25% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tacoma Defiance (rating 1512 vs 1555).
- H2H favours North Texas SC: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| North Texas SC | Tacoma Defiance | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.5 | 1.7 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.1 | 1.6 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.1 | 4.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · North Texas SC 3–2–1 Tacoma Defiance
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 2-3 HT 1-1 | North Texas SC |
| 27/10/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | North Texas SC | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 15/04/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | North Texas SC | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 20/08/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | North Texas SC | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 10/07/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 3-0 HT 2-0 | North Texas SC |
| 08/05/22 USA MLS Next Pro League | North Texas SC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Tacoma Defiance |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 42 | 18 | 46 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 24 | 43 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo II | 19 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 42 | 19 | 42 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 28 | 38 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC II | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 33 | 32 | 34 |
| 6 | Tacoma Defiance | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 29 | 29 | 33 |
| 7 | St Louis City II | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 33 |
| 8 | The Town | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 38 | 24 | 29 |
| 9 | Minnesota United FC II | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 34 | 29 |
| 10 | North Texas SC | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 30 | 29 | 26 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs SLC | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 39 | 26 |
| 12 | Sporting Kansas City II | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 52 | 19 |
| 13 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 28 | 49 | 19 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 21 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 42 | 12 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | North Texas SC | Tacoma Defiance |
|---|---|---|
| Ventura County FC | 1-6 L | 1-0 W |
| The Town | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Colorado Rapids II | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Vancouver Whitecaps II | 1-1 D | 4-2 W |
| Minnesota United FC II | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 4 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Tacoma Defiance (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
North Texas SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 1-6 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 19/07 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 12/07 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 05/07 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/06 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 30/05 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 17/05 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 5-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
Tacoma Defiance
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 27/07 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 20/07 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 13/07 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 06/07 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 29/06 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 22/06 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 18/06 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in North Texas SC vs Tacoma Defiance?
According to our model, the most likely result is a North Texas SC win (42%). Probabilities: North Texas SC 42%, draw 25%, Tacoma Defiance 33%.
How many goals are expected in North Texas SC vs Tacoma Defiance?
The model expects 3.14 goals (North Texas SC 1.67 · Tacoma Defiance 1.47), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in North Texas SC vs Tacoma Defiance?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.