Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 09/08, 22:00

Prediction: CT United vs New England Revolution II

Team pages: CT United · New England Revolution II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

CT United1.85

New England Revolution II1.35

1X2

48% 24% 27%

CT United Draw New England Revolution II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

CT United 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWWWWW

New England Revolution II 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLWLDWDW

Head-to-head

CT United 0–1–1 New England Revolution II (2 last)

CT United0-0New England Revolution II
New England Revolution II2-0CT United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CT United 1546 · New England Revolution II 1545

	CT United	Draw	New England Revolution II
Our model	48%	25%	27%
Market	49%	24%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CT United	New England Revolution II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.7	2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.7	2.4 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.70

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 1.90
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.40 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:07 +10’	1.85	3.70	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:55 +22’	1.96	3.62	3.28
20:56 +7’	1.90▼	3.68▲	3.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CT United 0–1–1 New England Revolution II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League	CT United	0-0 HT 0-0	New England Revolution II
22/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League	New England Revolution II	2-0 HT 1-0	CT United

Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crown Legacy	21	12	6	3	52	28	46
2	Chattanooga FC	21	10	6	5	40	30	40
3	New England Revolution II	20	10	6	4	32	23	39
4	Columbus Crew II	20	10	5	5	36	31	39
5	Orlando City II	21	8	7	6	42	38	35
6	Atlanta United II	20	10	4	6	44	33	34
7	CT United	20	10	2	8	39	35	34
8	Chicago Fire II	20	8	6	6	41	30	33
9	New York Red Bulls II	21	9	4	8	41	36	32
10	New York City FC II	19	8	4	7	30	30	30
11	Philadelphia Union II	22	8	4	10	24	29	30
12	Huntsville City	20	7	5	8	33	38	28
13	Toronto FC II	20	7	3	10	31	38	25
14	Carolina Core FC	22	4	8	10	30	40	23
15	FC Cincinnati II	21	4	2	15	22	45	16
16	Inter Miami CF II	20	1	4	15	16	49	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CT United	New England Revolution II
Columbus Crew II	2-1 W	2-2 D
New York Red Bulls II	2-1 W	4-1 W
Toronto FC II	3-2 W	3-1 W
New York City FC II	1-4 L	3-0 W
FC Cincinnati II	4-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: New England Revolution II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CT United

DLWWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-1	4-2	2	2	W
27/07	Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
20/07	New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
13/07	Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	3-2	2	2	W
06/07	Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	3-1	1	4	W
27/06	New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-2	1-4	8	6	L
19/06	FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League	3-0	4-0	2	4	W
14/06	Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-1	4-2	6	4	W
08/06	Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	1-2	6	5	L
31/05	Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-2	3	4	D

New England Revolution II

DWWLWLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	4-1	2	8	W
27/07	FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-2	8	4	D
23/07	New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	3-0	3-0	2	5	W
16/07	Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-2	2-2	9	7	D
05/07	Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-2	0-4	11	3	L
28/06	Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	3-1	1	1	W
21/06	Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-2	1-2	8	2	L
14/06	New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	2-1	5	7	W
08/06	FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
23/05	Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League	2-1	2-2	0	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CT United vs New England Revolution II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CT United win (48%). Probabilities: CT United 48%, draw 24%, New England Revolution II 27%.

How many goals are expected in CT United vs New England Revolution II?

The model expects 3.2 goals (CT United 1.85 · New England Revolution II 1.35), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CT United vs New England Revolution II?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.