Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 02/08, 04:00
Prediction: Tacoma Defiance vs Vancouver Whitecaps II
Team pages: Tacoma Defiance · Vancouver Whitecaps II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.09Total
Tacoma Defiance2.03
Vancouver Whitecaps II1.06
1X2
Tacoma Defiance
Draw
Vancouver Whitecaps II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Tacoma Defiance
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Vancouver Whitecaps II
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tacoma Defiance
2–4
Vancouver Whitecaps II
(6 last)
- Vancouver Whitecaps II0-2Tacoma Defiance
- Vancouver Whitecaps II2-1Tacoma Defiance
- Tacoma Defiance1-3Vancouver Whitecaps II
- Vancouver Whitecaps II5-0Tacoma Defiance
- Tacoma Defiance5-3Vancouver Whitecaps II
- Vancouver Whitecaps II3-1Tacoma Defiance
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tacoma Defiance 1543 · Vancouver Whitecaps II 1450
| Tacoma Defiance | Draw | Vancouver Whitecaps II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Market | 60% | 21% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tacoma Defiance (rating 1543 vs 1450).
- H2H favours Vancouver Whitecaps II: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tacoma Defiance | Vancouver Whitecaps II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 0/60/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.6 | 1.7 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.2 | 4.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tacoma Defiance 2–0–4 Vancouver Whitecaps II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 13/04/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 05/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Vancouver Whitecaps II |
| 15/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 07/04/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 5-3 HT 0-0 | Vancouver Whitecaps II |
| 22/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Tacoma Defiance |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 41 | 17 | 44 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo II | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 16 | 42 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers II | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 23 | 40 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 37 | 27 | 35 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC II | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 30 | 32 | 31 |
| 6 | Tacoma Defiance | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 27 | 30 |
| 7 | St Louis City II | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 33 | 30 |
| 8 | Minnesota United FC II | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 32 | 29 |
| 9 | The Town | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 37 | 23 | 28 |
| 10 | North Texas SC | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 23 | 26 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs SLC | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 36 | 26 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 26 | 45 | 19 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 24 | 50 | 16 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 20 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 39 | 12 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tacoma Defiance | Vancouver Whitecaps II |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids II | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Real Monarchs SLC | 4-2 W | 1-2 L |
| The Town | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Portland Timbers II | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Ventura County FC | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Tacoma Defiance (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tacoma Defiance
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 20/07 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 13/07 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 06/07 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 29/06 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 22/06 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 18/06 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 18/05 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Vancouver Whitecaps II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 23/07 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 12/07 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 08/07 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 28/06 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 18/06 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 11/06 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 06/06 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 31/05 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 25/05 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tacoma Defiance vs Vancouver Whitecaps II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tacoma Defiance win (59%). Probabilities: Tacoma Defiance 59%, draw 22%, Vancouver Whitecaps II 19%.
How many goals are expected in Tacoma Defiance vs Vancouver Whitecaps II?
The model expects 3.09 goals (Tacoma Defiance 2.03 · Vancouver Whitecaps II 1.06), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Tacoma Defiance vs Vancouver Whitecaps II?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.