Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 11/08, 17:00
Prediction: New York City FC II vs Orlando City II
Team pages: New York City FC II · Orlando City II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.59Total
New York City FC II1.94
Orlando City II1.65
1X2
New York City FC II
Draw
Orlando City II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
New York City FC II
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Orlando City II
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
New York City FC II
2–1–3
Orlando City II
(6 last)
- Orlando City II1-4New York City FC II
- New York City FC II5-2Orlando City II
- Orlando City II3-2New York City FC II
- New York City FC II3-4Orlando City II
- Orlando City II2-2New York City FC II
- New York City FC II0-2Orlando City II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · New York City FC II 1524 · Orlando City II 1500
| New York City FC II | Draw | Orlando City II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Market | 44% | 24% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.59 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Orlando City II: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| New York City FC II | Orlando City II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.4 | 1.9 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.7 | 2 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.6 | 3.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · New York City FC II 2–1–3 Orlando City II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Orlando City II | 1-4 HT 0-2 | New York City FC II |
| 28/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 5-2 HT 2-0 | Orlando City II |
| 19/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Orlando City II | 3-2 HT 2-1 | New York City FC II |
| 14/08/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 3-4 HT 2-1 | Orlando City II |
| 24/04/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Orlando City II | 2-2 HT 2-1 | New York City FC II |
| 13/08/22 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Orlando City II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 52 | 28 | 46 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 30 | 43 |
| 3 | New England Revolution II | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 24 | 42 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew II | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 37 | 33 | 39 |
| 5 | New York Red Bulls II | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 43 | 37 | 35 |
| 6 | Orlando City II | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 42 | 38 | 35 |
| 7 | Atlanta United II | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 44 | 34 | 34 |
| 8 | CT United | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 40 | 37 | 34 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire II | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 43 | 34 | 33 |
| 10 | New York City FC II | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 29 | 30 |
| 12 | Toronto FC II | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 40 | 28 |
| 13 | Huntsville City | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 33 | 40 | 28 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 40 | 26 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 21 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 22 | 45 | 16 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 20 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 16 | 49 | 8 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | New York City FC II | Orlando City II |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union II | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Crown Legacy | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| CT United | 4-1 W | 2-4 L |
| Chattanooga FC | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Carolina Core FC | 3-2 W | 3-2 W |
| Columbus Crew II | 2-3 L | 2-2 D |
| FC Cincinnati II | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: New York City FC II (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
New York City FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 10 | D |
| 26/07 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 23/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 12/07 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 22/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 18/06 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
Orlando City II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 27/07 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 13/07 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/07 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 29/06 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 22/06 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 14/06 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 08/06 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 5-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in New York City FC II vs Orlando City II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a New York City FC II win (44%). Probabilities: New York City FC II 44%, draw 24%, Orlando City II 32%.
How many goals are expected in New York City FC II vs Orlando City II?
The model expects 3.59 goals (New York City FC II 1.94 · Orlando City II 1.65), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in New York City FC II vs Orlando City II?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.