Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 20/08, 02:45
Prediction: North Texas SC vs Austin FC II
Team pages: North Texas SC · Austin FC II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.85Total
North Texas SC1.14
Austin FC II1.71
1X2
North Texas SC
Draw
Austin FC II
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
North Texas SC
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Austin FC II
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
North Texas SC
1–2–3
Austin FC II
(6 last)
- North Texas SC0-2Austin FC II
- Austin FC II1-0North Texas SC
- Austin FC II1-1North Texas SC
- North Texas SC1-2Austin FC II
- Austin FC II1-1North Texas SC
- North Texas SC2-1Austin FC II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · North Texas SC 1468 · Austin FC II 1592
| North Texas SC | Draw | Austin FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 26% | 50% |
| Market | 26% | 23% | 51% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.85 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Austin FC II (rating 1468 vs 1592).
- H2H favours Austin FC II: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| North Texas SC | Austin FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.8 | 2.3 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 0.7 | 1.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 80/10/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.9 | 2 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · North Texas SC 1–2–3 Austin FC II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | North Texas SC | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Austin FC II |
| 16/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Austin FC II | 1-0 HT 1-0 | North Texas SC |
| 09/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Austin FC II | 1-1 HT 0-0 | North Texas SC |
| 15/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | North Texas SC | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Austin FC II |
| 12/04/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Austin FC II | 1-1 HT 1-0 | North Texas SC |
| 23/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | North Texas SC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Austin FC II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 22 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 47 | 19 | 52 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 31 | 24 | 48 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo II | 21 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 45 | 21 | 45 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 45 | 28 | 41 |
| 5 | St Louis City II | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 36 | 33 | 38 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC II | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 37 | 35 | 38 |
| 7 | Tacoma Defiance | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 36 | 33 |
| 8 | The Town | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 39 | 27 | 31 |
| 9 | Minnesota United FC II | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 30 | 35 | 30 |
| 10 | North Texas SC | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 29 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs SLC | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 31 | 42 | 26 |
| 12 | Sporting Kansas City II | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 29 | 55 | 20 |
| 13 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 23 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 29 | 53 | 19 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 23 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 20 | 44 | 15 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | North Texas SC | Austin FC II |
|---|---|---|
| The Town | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Colorado Rapids II | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| St Louis City II | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Vancouver Whitecaps II | 1-1 D | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
North Texas SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 1-6 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 19/07 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 12/07 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 05/07 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/06 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 30/05 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
Austin FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 10/08 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 03/08 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 27/07 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 23/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 13/07 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 06/07 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 29/06 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 22/06 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-1 | 3-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in North Texas SC vs Austin FC II?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Austin FC II win (50%). Probabilities: North Texas SC 25%, draw 25%, Austin FC II 50%.
How many goals are expected in North Texas SC vs Austin FC II?
The model expects 2.85 goals (North Texas SC 1.14 · Austin FC II 1.71), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in North Texas SC vs Austin FC II?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.