Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 29/08, 01:00
Prediction: Toronto FC II vs New York City FC II
Team pages: Toronto FC II · New York City FC II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.72Total
Toronto FC II1.89
New York City FC II1.83
1X2
Toronto FC II
Draw
New York City FC II
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Toronto FC II
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
New York City FC II
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Toronto FC II
4–2
New York City FC II
(6 last)
- Toronto FC II2-1New York City FC II
- New York City FC II0-5Toronto FC II
- Toronto FC II3-0New York City FC II
- New York City FC II1-0Toronto FC II
- New York City FC II3-0Toronto FC II
- Toronto FC II3-0New York City FC II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Toronto FC II 1476 · New York City FC II 1509
| Toronto FC II | Draw | New York City FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 23% | 37% |
| Market | 39% | 24% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Toronto FC II: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Toronto FC II | New York City FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2.8 | 2.3 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1 | 1.3 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4 | 1.7 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Toronto FC II 4–0–2 New York City FC II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 2-1 HT 0-0 | New York City FC II |
| 19/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 0-5 HT 0-2 | Toronto FC II |
| 31/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 3-0 HT 1-0 | New York City FC II |
| 17/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 15/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 15/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 3-0 HT 2-0 | New York City FC II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 57 | 33 | 51 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 44 | 35 | 44 |
| 3 | CT United | 24 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 49 | 41 | 43 |
| 4 | New England Revolution II | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 34 | 42 |
| 5 | Columbus Crew II | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 41 | 36 | 42 |
| 6 | New York Red Bulls II | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 50 | 39 | 41 |
| 7 | Atlanta United II | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 52 | 38 | 40 |
| 8 | New York City FC II | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 42 | 35 | 39 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire II | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 37 | 39 |
| 10 | Huntsville City | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 38 | 42 | 35 |
| 11 | Orlando City II | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 48 | 35 |
| 12 | Philadelphia Union II | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 30 | 36 | 33 |
| 13 | Toronto FC II | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 38 | 47 | 30 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 43 | 26 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 24 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 27 | 54 | 19 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 23 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 21 | 56 | 11 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Toronto FC II | New York City FC II |
|---|---|---|
| Chattanooga FC | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| FC Cincinnati II | 3-1 W | 5-0 W |
| CT United | 2-3 L | 4-1 W |
| Atlanta United II | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| New England Revolution II | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: New York City FC II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toronto FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 1-5 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 10/08 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 18/07 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 13/07 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 05/07 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 22/06 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
New York City FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 19/08 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 11/08 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 10 | D |
| 26/07 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 23/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 12/07 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 22/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toronto FC II vs New York City FC II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Toronto FC II win (39%). Probabilities: Toronto FC II 39%, draw 24%, New York City FC II 37%.
How many goals are expected in Toronto FC II vs New York City FC II?
The model expects 3.72 goals (Toronto FC II 1.89 · New York City FC II 1.83), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Toronto FC II vs New York City FC II?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.